Great post, thanks for sharing. I love that sign. The bridge was in Escape From New York.roger wyoming II wrote:The Luna Cafe is still around and its cool neon sign rehabbed a few years back through a Route 66 grant program:
http://www.waymarking.com/waymarks/WM1A ... l_Illinois. With the bridge, Mississippi River and those awesome water towers all nearby, it could be a cool setting for a movie.
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The results are in: 120 official homicides. Although that is worse than last year, the total index crime rate continues to look really good. This is the third year in a row of sub-9000 index crime rates, and that hasn't happened since probably the early 1960s. If you love STL, make sure everyone you know is aware of how dramatically crime has been declining. This is one of the critical building blocks for STL's twenty-first century legacy.
Can someone explain what goes into crime index? I'm sure I could google it and find out as well, but I'm just curious what goes into that since there is such a wide range of what crime could be.
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Crime index = (violent crime + property crime) / 3.18. That produces the per 100,000 calculation (if STL drops to 317,000, then it's 3.17). If you want any other stat, it's (crime stat total) / 3.18.
*Violent crime is rape, murder, assault, robbery.
*Property crime is larceny, auto theft, burglary, arson.
Excel spreadsheets are available on the FBI UCR website when they post official numbers (late in 2014 for 2013), but until then, you have to compile it yourself using the data on the SLMPD website.
*Violent crime is rape, murder, assault, robbery.
*Property crime is larceny, auto theft, burglary, arson.
Excel spreadsheets are available on the FBI UCR website when they post official numbers (late in 2014 for 2013), but until then, you have to compile it yourself using the data on the SLMPD website.
Did anyone else catch the St. Louis Public Radio news update about how crime in the City of St. Louis dropped 5% since last year. It said that all types of crime EXCEPT rape and homicide decreased, of which those two crimes INCREASED. Yet, they reported the news as a "success." Give me a break. The fact that the two most violent crimes increased (in a city that presumably decreased in population since last year) is not a success, but rather a failure. There's obviously a problem here. It really infuriates me that the city's spin doctors have manipulated this sad reality into sounding like a positive thing. Does the city think we're that stupid, and that we should be proud of an increased rape and murder rate? In my opinion, the decrease in other crimes doesn't mean jack in comparison.
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I think some of this is just silly.
Murder went from 113 to 120. Big deal.
In a population of 310,000, that a difference of .00002%, and people are actually reporting there's an increase in the murder rate? Whatever.
Are murders bad? Yes. Are murderers bad? Yes. We all agree!
The fact is, as Chief Dotson noted, murders happen almost always in the settling of some kind of score, usually drug and gang related.
So stay out of the drug trade and gang life and your chances of being murdered in the City of St. Louis are something like .00002.
I'll live with those odds and feel perfectly safe.
I suspect the story behind the #s on rapes is similar.
And whatever the cops do will have little effect on lowering the #s.
Desperate people leading desperate lives are unfortunately caught up in crime.
We'll always have poor people. We'll always have crime.
Working to increase income, education, and family/household stability should be everyone's concern.
The focus on the back end statistics of whether there are 110, 120, or 130 murders is tabloid silliness.
Murder went from 113 to 120. Big deal.
In a population of 310,000, that a difference of .00002%, and people are actually reporting there's an increase in the murder rate? Whatever.
Are murders bad? Yes. Are murderers bad? Yes. We all agree!
The fact is, as Chief Dotson noted, murders happen almost always in the settling of some kind of score, usually drug and gang related.
So stay out of the drug trade and gang life and your chances of being murdered in the City of St. Louis are something like .00002.
I'll live with those odds and feel perfectly safe.
I suspect the story behind the #s on rapes is similar.
And whatever the cops do will have little effect on lowering the #s.
Desperate people leading desperate lives are unfortunately caught up in crime.
We'll always have poor people. We'll always have crime.
Working to increase income, education, and family/household stability should be everyone's concern.
The focus on the back end statistics of whether there are 110, 120, or 130 murders is tabloid silliness.
My understanding is the increase in rapes is not necessarily that there are more rapes, but that due to how the FBI collects and classifies data, the definition of rape, or the reporting, has been broadened. So that in previous years, you would see a similar effect under the new reporting method. Is it good that there are this many rapes? No. Are there actually more rapes? Not necessarily. And second what NN said about murders - my takeaway reading about these crimes is that the majority of them involve drugs and gangs and people that know one another settling a drug/gang score.
But the overall crime rate hasn't been this low or stayed this low since the 60s. That's the important piece.
But the overall crime rate hasn't been this low or stayed this low since the 60s. That's the important piece.
I agree that the difference is negligible, but touting the overall decrease as a "success" is a stretch, when the most serious crimes didn't decrease, but actually increased (albeit barely). It's not like a 5% reduction is a drastic decrease. Part of the reason people criticize the city is because of its dismissive attitude on these things. Obviously there will always be crime, and of course the it's not the police's fault for it, but celebrating such a trivial decrease seems like a blatant PR move that most city residents can see right through.
I don't think it is trivial, though. 5% from one year to the next isn't a big deal, but look at the cumulative effect over the past 20 years. Crime is down, by a lot. Other cities show that it could be down more, and the relatively "good" crime rates we have here now on par with MPLS's mid 90's "Murderapolis" years. That is nothing to brag about, but since then, MPLS has managed to cut its crime rate in half.
There are social factors in STL that are larger in scale than those in MPLS, but using today's crime rates as a starting point, is it possible to reasonably think that in 10 or 15 years, the time frame it took for MPLS to go from Murderapolis to Portland Part 2, this could be a much safer city, especially in light of all the investment and redevelopment that is occurring and will continue to occur?
There are social factors in STL that are larger in scale than those in MPLS, but using today's crime rates as a starting point, is it possible to reasonably think that in 10 or 15 years, the time frame it took for MPLS to go from Murderapolis to Portland Part 2, this could be a much safer city, especially in light of all the investment and redevelopment that is occurring and will continue to occur?
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Does anyone know where to get the neighborhood data? Can't see it at the SLMPD site. But media -- I believe KMOV -- was reporting significant decreases (20%+) in some of the most troubled north city nabes but also a disturbing increase in Dutchtown.
I think you have a point, except that there's one glaring exception. The homicide rate increased since the previous year, which bucks any long-term trend that might otherwise be apparent.onecity wrote:I don't think it is trivial, though. 5% from one year to the next isn't a big deal, but look at the cumulative effect over the past 20 years. Crime is down, by a lot. Other cities show that it could be down more, and the relatively "good" crime rates we have here now on par with MPLS's mid 90's "Murderapolis" years. That is nothing to brag about, but since then, MPLS has managed to cut its crime rate in half.
There are social factors in STL that are larger in scale than those in MPLS, but using today's crime rates as a starting point, is it possible to reasonably think that in 10 or 15 years, the time frame it took for MPLS to go from Murderapolis to Portland Part 2, this could be a much safer city, especially in light of all the investment and redevelopment that is occurring and will continue to occur?
Also, yes, crime overall is down by a lot, but the city population has also decreased over the last 20 years. I don't want to sound like an STLtoday commenter-- you all know I love St. Louis more than life itself-- but that news story really rubbed me the wrong way.
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The rape category increased drastically because they are reporting same-sex incidents now. Those rapes were always there, they are just now being included in the tally.
I don't know what the raw numbers are, but there were 26k total index crimes last year. To get the rate, you divide that by 3.1 (to get per 100k), and that gives you an index crime rate of about 8400. That is the statistical rate, which is independent of population.
Compare that to the table cells on Alex Ihnen's new NextSTL story on the crime numbers, you see that's half the rate of crime in the early 90s, and that the past three years are on par with 1967. That means it's been almost *fifty years* since STL crime in general was this low. Will the trend continue? Who knows, but it's a good place to start.
Compare that to the table cells on Alex Ihnen's new NextSTL story on the crime numbers, you see that's half the rate of crime in the early 90s, and that the past three years are on par with 1967. That means it's been almost *fifty years* since STL crime in general was this low. Will the trend continue? Who knows, but it's a good place to start.
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stlgasm, I hear ya but agree with onecity that it is the trend that is key and not necessarily year over year numbers.... for example what the heck happened in 2003 or whatever when we only had 75 homicides or so? Chicago has been trending downward but saw a big spike in '12 before seeing a return to the strong drop in '13. And looking at other cities, in Boston they had as many shooting as last year but still saw a continued drop in homicides; meanwhile in Chicago they saw a big drop in both shootings and homicides.
Two years does make a trend, though, so another increase in Saint Louis for '14 would not be good. But perhaps a stronger message that these numbers are still not acceptable, etc. would be appropriate.
In terms of population loss, and addressing onecity's query, my hope is that in the next five years we see consistent numbers of homicides under 100 along with continued drops in index crimes -- if we can accomplish that I think that will help stem population loss and help our 2020 census figures. In ten years, I hope we're consistently at or below that "great" year of 2003.
Two years does make a trend, though, so another increase in Saint Louis for '14 would not be good. But perhaps a stronger message that these numbers are still not acceptable, etc. would be appropriate.
In terms of population loss, and addressing onecity's query, my hope is that in the next five years we see consistent numbers of homicides under 100 along with continued drops in index crimes -- if we can accomplish that I think that will help stem population loss and help our 2020 census figures. In ten years, I hope we're consistently at or below that "great" year of 2003.
That is indeed encouraging, no doubt. But I would bet that every major city saw a similar decline since the early '90's, leading me to believe that the decrease is more indicative of a national trend.onecity wrote:I don't know what the raw numbers are, but there were 26k total index crimes last year. To get the rate, you divide that by 3.1 (to get per 100k), and that gives you an index crime rate of about 8400. That is the statistical rate, which is independent of population.
Compare that to the table cells on Alex Ihnen's new NextSTL story on the crime numbers, you see that's half the rate of crime in the early 90s, and that the past three years are on par with 1967. That means it's been almost *fifty years* since STL crime in general was this low. Will the trend continue? Who knows, but it's a good place to start.
I have no doubt it is a national trend. My point is that one of the star cities, MPLS, twenty years ago would be one of today's most violent cities as its stats then, and even into the late 90s, were on par with what we have now.
The thing to do is congratulate the police and city leadership for the great progress, but remind them that this is only the beginning and that we expect nothing less than better every year.
The thing to do is congratulate the police and city leadership for the great progress, but remind them that this is only the beginning and that we expect nothing less than better every year.
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I know this thread is the "Crime Thread", but what it's worth, I'm gonna blurt this out:
St. Louis has an obsession with crime! It's an easy, divisive issue. It is used as a wedge by non-city residents against anyone trying to make the case in support of the city.
In reality, the perception (among some) is FAR more scary than the reality.
There is no "border" when it comes to crime. Criminals can cross from the city to the county, etc, at will.
The Galleria has crime. St. Louis County has crime. But the narrative is that it's the CITY where crime is a crisis.
I applaud the efforts of Chief Dotson to try to neutralize some of that narrative. I applaud the efforts of the City and County to do combined crime reporting.
And I encourage everyone to focus more on other issues besides crime.
The most boring, turnoff, waste of time and discouragement of neighborhood residents is to attend a ward or neighborhood meeting and hear old people sit around and pummel the cops with questions about crime, which usually get some sort of pat non-answer.
Move to a freakin' desert island if you want no crime.
St. Louis has an obsession with crime! It's an easy, divisive issue. It is used as a wedge by non-city residents against anyone trying to make the case in support of the city.
In reality, the perception (among some) is FAR more scary than the reality.
There is no "border" when it comes to crime. Criminals can cross from the city to the county, etc, at will.
The Galleria has crime. St. Louis County has crime. But the narrative is that it's the CITY where crime is a crisis.
I applaud the efforts of Chief Dotson to try to neutralize some of that narrative. I applaud the efforts of the City and County to do combined crime reporting.
And I encourage everyone to focus more on other issues besides crime.
The most boring, turnoff, waste of time and discouragement of neighborhood residents is to attend a ward or neighborhood meeting and hear old people sit around and pummel the cops with questions about crime, which usually get some sort of pat non-answer.
Move to a freakin' desert island if you want no crime.
What's up your butt? Why the hostility toward people expecting and demanding better, whether it be snow removal or crime? ***** bad snow removal policies. ***** criminals. No one wants to hear that's just how it is in STL. Expect more. Demand more. Always.
The reason this is a big deal and should be touted as a good thing is that a lot of people don't live in the city because they're afraid of the crime.
Well 120 or 113 murders (all of which we agree are sad and bad), their chance of being murdered, especially if they're not involved in drugs or gangs is extremely low. And their chance of having any other serious crime committed against them just. keeps. dropping.
There seems to be this hurdle some people have trouble getting over that, the city can continue to focus on and fight against the things that are still bad, while still promoting the good things (which in turn help spur on the fight against the bad).
It's the same thing with crime reporting. "Don't merge crime stats with STL County, that's just pretending like existing crime isn't there!"
No it's not. It's giving a more honest comparison to other metro areas to help restore the STL reputation. It's not like the police force is going to see the new numbers and stop patrolling neighborhoods.
We can promote the good and still fight the bad. I promise. We're all very capable of doing multiple things.
Well 120 or 113 murders (all of which we agree are sad and bad), their chance of being murdered, especially if they're not involved in drugs or gangs is extremely low. And their chance of having any other serious crime committed against them just. keeps. dropping.
There seems to be this hurdle some people have trouble getting over that, the city can continue to focus on and fight against the things that are still bad, while still promoting the good things (which in turn help spur on the fight against the bad).
It's the same thing with crime reporting. "Don't merge crime stats with STL County, that's just pretending like existing crime isn't there!"
No it's not. It's giving a more honest comparison to other metro areas to help restore the STL reputation. It's not like the police force is going to see the new numbers and stop patrolling neighborhoods.
We can promote the good and still fight the bad. I promise. We're all very capable of doing multiple things.
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onecity,
"Are you young" (I think I heard someone ask me that question...what were the others?) Anyhow, do you live in the city? Are you "new" to the city? Have you attended neighborhood meetings for 10, 20 years? Have you heard the way crime talk monopolizes almost every neighborhood meeting?
I have nothing "up my butt" as you say. I'd say the people with something "up their butts" are the ones obsessed with crime in the city. It's a sensationalized topic where there is far more heat than light. Exhibit A? The ongoing whack-a-mole blame game engaged in by some of our elected officials.
You wanna do something about crime? Back away from your computer. Organize your neighbors. Spend time outside. Hold block parties. Keep valuables out of sight. Keep front porch light on. Have a motion detector light for your rear yard. Lock your garage. Keep lights on/hire a house sitter when out of town. Get a dog. Put up fake security company signs in your yard. Take down privacy fences, but repair your 4' fence; and, keep your landscaping trimmed. Etc.
And yes, I do all of these things. And you know what? I'm not obsessed with crime in the slightest.
"Are you young" (I think I heard someone ask me that question...what were the others?) Anyhow, do you live in the city? Are you "new" to the city? Have you attended neighborhood meetings for 10, 20 years? Have you heard the way crime talk monopolizes almost every neighborhood meeting?
I have nothing "up my butt" as you say. I'd say the people with something "up their butts" are the ones obsessed with crime in the city. It's a sensationalized topic where there is far more heat than light. Exhibit A? The ongoing whack-a-mole blame game engaged in by some of our elected officials.
You wanna do something about crime? Back away from your computer. Organize your neighbors. Spend time outside. Hold block parties. Keep valuables out of sight. Keep front porch light on. Have a motion detector light for your rear yard. Lock your garage. Keep lights on/hire a house sitter when out of town. Get a dog. Put up fake security company signs in your yard. Take down privacy fences, but repair your 4' fence; and, keep your landscaping trimmed. Etc.
And yes, I do all of these things. And you know what? I'm not obsessed with crime in the slightest.
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^ Its absurd to think that it is just old people who are quite alarmed about crime. I had neighbors with kids who recently moved out of the city in part b/c their car was shot up in the middle of the night.... a bullet hole was lodged in a kid's car seat. And this morning at school a parent said he was out with his daughter last night for about a half hour and came home to find a burglar was in the house.... he already is talking about moving out of the city. Sure these are just anecdotes but that is at least 7 people who likely won't be counted in the 2020 census and I really can't blame them.
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Maybe so, but what about crime stats being down?
See? It's all very personal, anecdotal, etc, with whatever data not really meaning squat to the individual.
Those neighbors you describe...how many of the things below do they do on an ongoing basis:
See? It's all very personal, anecdotal, etc, with whatever data not really meaning squat to the individual.
Those neighbors you describe...how many of the things below do they do on an ongoing basis:
You wanna do something about crime? Back away from your computer. Organize your neighbors. Spend time outside. Hold block parties. Keep valuables out of sight. Keep front porch light on. Have a motion detector light for your rear yard. Lock your garage. Keep lights on/hire a house sitter when out of town. Get a dog. Put up fake security company signs in your yard. Take down privacy fences, but repair your 4' fence; and, keep your landscaping trimmed. Etc.
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wow, borderline blame the victim... well done, sir! My neighbor's car was shot up in the middle of the freakin night... how could they have possibly stopped that other than not have an automobile? What should I have said to them, "You know guys, that was really a terrible thing that happened but on the other hand I see you didn't participate in the block party."Northside Neighbor wrote:
Those neighbors you describe...how many of the things below do they do on an ongoing basis:
You wanna do something about crime? Back away from your computer. Organize your neighbors. Spend time outside. Hold block parties. Keep valuables out of sight. Keep front porch light on. Have a motion detector light for your rear yard. Lock your garage. Keep lights on/hire a house sitter when out of town. Get a dog. Put up fake security company signs in your yard. Take down privacy fences, but repair your 4' fence; and, keep your landscaping trimmed. Etc.
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Why was their car shot up? That's a bit strange. And you didn't answer the questions about the common sense full rage of basic home security measures. Block parties are just one piece. A small piece.
Sounds like they better move.
And before anyone thinks I'm somehow insensitive to crime, think again.
My mom is a rape victim. An immediate family member was assaulted here in the city. Our car was stolen from in front of our house. And the front window of our house was shot out about the same time we were involved in a neighborhood controversy. And I've lost track of how many times I've been called in for jury duty. So, yeah, I get the whole crime-in-the-city thing.
And you know what? I'm still obsessed with it and have no plans on moving out of the city.
Sounds like they better move.
And before anyone thinks I'm somehow insensitive to crime, think again.
My mom is a rape victim. An immediate family member was assaulted here in the city. Our car was stolen from in front of our house. And the front window of our house was shot out about the same time we were involved in a neighborhood controversy. And I've lost track of how many times I've been called in for jury duty. So, yeah, I get the whole crime-in-the-city thing.
And you know what? I'm still obsessed with it and have no plans on moving out of the city.