Buyers struggle to find homes in"Red Hot" STL housing market

GoHarvOrGoHome · PostApr 17, 2017#12017-04-17T23:48+00:00

Pretty interesting article by the PD http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ ... ign=LEEDCC

Homes on the market have nearly halved since 2007. Hopefully it lasts long enough to bring some more investment to the more neglected South City hoods such as Marine Villa, Dutchtown, and Carondelet.

Unfortunately this is looking eerily similar to the years before the crash. Hopefully when the market tanks again STL will be prepared

bprop · PostApr 18, 2017#22017-04-18T00:26+00:00

They highlighted one set of newlyweds in the story trying to find a house in Ballwin. Now they very well could be 30 or even 40-somethings with long and stable careers.

But for most young folks getting started, I've never thought of Ballwin as a place to buy a first home. I wonder if nice neighborhoods more traditionally associated with starter homes - say, Florissant or Affton or Lindenwood/Northampton in the City - are experiencing the same type of pressure.

downtown2007 · PostApr 18, 2017#32017-04-18T00:30+00:00

I don't think the housing market is going to tank again. There are no bubbles building like last time. Now true, we are in the 8th inning of the current economic expansion but it's unclear how severe of a recession we will have. It could be a slight dip or tank like last time, but nothing indicates a big crash like 2008.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Ebsy · PostApr 18, 2017#42017-04-18T01:18+00:00

bprop wrote: ↑
Apr 18, 2017
They highlighted one set of newlyweds in the story trying to find a house in Ballwin. Now they very well could be 30 or even 40-somethings with long and stable careers.

But for most young folks getting started, I've never thought of Ballwin as a place to buy a first home. I wonder if nice neighborhoods more traditionally associated with starter homes - say, Florissant or Affton or Lindenwood/Northampton in the City - are experiencing the same type of pressure.

I merely have anecdotes in this case, but as a lifelong resident of Lindenwood Park, I've never seen so few homes on the market or those that are selling so quickly for so near the asking price.

MattnSTL · PostApr 18, 2017#52017-04-18T13:52+00:00

Ebsy wrote: ↑
Apr 18, 2017

bprop wrote: ↑
Apr 18, 2017
They highlighted one set of newlyweds in the story trying to find a house in Ballwin. Now they very well could be 30 or even 40-somethings with long and stable careers.

But for most young folks getting started, I've never thought of Ballwin as a place to buy a first home. I wonder if nice neighborhoods more traditionally associated with starter homes - say, Florissant or Affton or Lindenwood/Northampton in the City - are experiencing the same type of pressure.
I merely have anecdotes in this case, but as a lifelong resident of Lindenwood Park, I've never seen so few homes on the market or those that are selling so quickly for so near the asking price.

Anecdotal as well, but three houses directly across the street from my parents' house in NorthHampton sold in the past month the day they listed or before being listed for full asking price. A few more on the block have sold in the first week of listing. Prices are going up, and homes are selling fast. Even a house on their block that had been vacant 15 years because the owner wouldn't sell due to sentimental value or something or other after he got divorced sold in a week once it was listed over the Winter, and is now getting the full gut renovation it deserves. That said, there is one overpriced home on their block that has been on the market for a while now, so price still matters.

Bart Harley Jarvis · PostApr 18, 2017#62017-04-18T14:21+00:00

Not that Zillow is the end-all, be-all of home values, but we sold our house in June '15 in Lindenwood Park for right at the "Zestimate" value. Today, it's up 16% from that price.

Chalupas54 · PostApr 18, 2017#72017-04-18T15:33+00:00

This is a common theme in the St. Louis area. Bidding wars are the name of the game right now. If any of you want to see the extreme tensions, go to any open houses in Chesterfield or Wildwood. From what I understand, even home value in North County is sky rocketing.

goat314 · PostApr 18, 2017#82017-04-18T19:24+00:00

Strange that there is a housing crunch in region, but yet the region is either stagnant or declining based on recent census reports. Has the region just not built enough housing in the past few decades? Or are the population and job growth numbers off?

Bart Harley Jarvis · PostApr 18, 2017#92017-04-18T19:29+00:00

goat314 wrote: ↑
Apr 18, 2017
Strange that there is a housing crunch in region, but yet the region is either stagnant or declining based on recent census reports. Has the region just not built enough housing in the past few decades? Or are the population and job growth numbers off?

Or are vacancy rates in other neighborhoods higher than normal?

goat314 · PostApr 18, 2017#102017-04-18T19:49+00:00

ricke002 wrote: ↑
Apr 18, 2017

goat314 wrote: ↑
Apr 18, 2017
Strange that there is a housing crunch in region, but yet the region is either stagnant or declining based on recent census reports. Has the region just not built enough housing in the past few decades? Or are the population and job growth numbers off?
Or are vacancy rates in other neighborhoods higher than normal?

I believe that I read there was a housing shortage throughout region. Maybe a shortage of housing types that people actually want in 21st century. Seems like many of the inner ring suburbs, which is basically all of St. Louis County needs major redevelopment to meet current housing expectations. Surely regional fragmentation hinders wholesale redevelopment and retrofits.

Ebsy · PostApr 18, 2017#112017-04-18T22:27+00:00

Chalupas54 wrote: ↑
Apr 18, 2017
This is a common theme in the St. Louis area. Bidding wars are the name of the game right now. If any of you want to see the extreme tensions, go to any open houses in Chesterfield or Wildwood. From what I understand, even home value in North County is sky rocketing.

A house a block over from me in South St. Louis City went on the market, had 20 showings on its first weekend, and was under contract in under a week with the sellers getting asking price minus closing costs (which was on the high end of what homes go for in the neighborhood). Don't know if there was a bidding war but it's hard to believe that the buyers were start with the asking price.

moorlander · PostApr 18, 2017#122017-04-18T22:53+00:00

goat314 wrote:Strange that there is a housing crunch in region, but yet the region is either stagnant or declining based on recent census reports.

I haven't seen any reports about the region declining in population. Slow growth yes.

STLrainbow · PostApr 18, 2017#132017-04-18T23:25+00:00

^ 2016 population estimates from the census.. small decline for the Metro.

Aesir · PostApr 19, 2017#142017-04-19T00:05+00:00

Wether small decline or small growth, I doubt those numbers are big enough to sway the housing market in such a manner. Where are the buyers coming from?

urban_dilettante · PostApr 19, 2017#152017-04-19T03:45+00:00

We've been shopping for a house in the city lately. There doesn't seem to be much available, at least not much in our price range (<$120K) that doesn't need a ton of work. Our agent concurred that March and April--prime listing season--have been pretty sparse.

onecity · PostApr 19, 2017#162017-04-19T15:38+00:00

There is a ton of awesome housing stock for dirt cheap, just north of the CWE and south of Page. It is a myth that there is anything resembling a shortage of housing in STL.

Ebsy · PostApr 19, 2017#172017-04-19T16:21+00:00

onecity wrote: ↑
Apr 19, 2017
There is a ton of awesome housing stock for dirt cheap, just north of the CWE and south of Page. It is a myth that there is anything resembling a shortage of housing in STL.

Not exactly an in demand neighborhood, and we know that North City is shedding resident by the handful at the moment, leaving behind a lot of empty houses.

urban_dilettante · PostApr 19, 2017#182017-04-19T17:01+00:00

onecity wrote: ↑
Apr 19, 2017
There is a ton of awesome housing stock for dirt cheap, just north of the CWE and south of Page. It is a myth that there is anything resembling a shortage of housing in STL.

Well, we looked north of the CWE and there wasn't much available in our price range that didn't need more work than we can afford. You're right that there isn't a shortage of housing. There's a shortage well-maintained housing.

stlokc · PostApr 19, 2017#192017-04-19T18:14+00:00

My experience has been similar. My wife and I invest in rental properties. In the last 2 years we have bought a couple of rent houses in Kirkwood and are actively looking for a third in Kirkwood, Webster, Glendale, Brentwood etc. Several times lately we've visited houses we loved on their first day on the market, and those houses sold in that first day, with multiple offers and over asking price. One house in Webster, less than $200K, received 11 offers and sold for $10,000 over asking!

As far as where the buyers are coming from, it's my personal opinion that a lot of people in their 20s and early 30s avoided homebuying in the last decade due to the recession and hangover from it. They've been living with their parents or in apartments. Now they are in a better position so there is pent-up demand.

imperialmog · PostApr 19, 2017#202017-04-19T18:37+00:00

^ The pent up demand theory does make sense. Isn't another thing is to note that it seems a wide range of housing types and settings seem to be riding this? There is the possibility of some demographic and migratory trends that have not been found yet playing into it. Possibly leading indicators of stronger growth in the long run. Just depends on if this is a short or longer-term trend since it does seem to be in its 2nd year now.

onecity · PostApr 21, 2017#212017-04-21T16:35+00:00

urban_dilettante wrote: ↑
Apr 19, 2017

onecity wrote: ↑
Apr 19, 2017
There is a ton of awesome housing stock for dirt cheap, just north of the CWE and south of Page. It is a myth that there is anything resembling a shortage of housing in STL.
Well, we looked north of the CWE and there wasn't much available in our price range that didn't need more work than we can afford. You're right that there isn't a shortage of housing. There's a shortage well-maintained housing.

At some point - and based on prices of nicer homes in the hot neighborhoods I think we're there - it has to become more economical to rehab the north side of the CWE up to Page than to keep driving up prices in a handful of neighborhoods out of perceived (and totally BS) scarcity. The houses north of Delmar and south of Page, and in many other parts of North City are nice, but they and the urban form they are part of will not last a lot longer without some attention and dollars. I personally think the layout of North City is a lot better than the layout of most of the rest of the city. It's flat and walkable and bikeable, it isn't interrupted by rail infrastructure everywhere. There's a beautiful and tempting house at Cook and Whittier - it's all brick and terracotta construction, but it's on serious borrowed time. In sight of the north Sarah development a block to the east, too. 4200-4204 Cook. SUCH a nice house. The three lots can be had for I think < $5k from the LRA. Granted, it's a total gut job. Nothing would make me happier than to see gentrification in that particular ward, just to spite a terrible city council member.

joelo · PostApr 21, 2017#222017-04-21T17:04+00:00

"Red Hot" housing market got my PMI removed earlier this year. My appraisal for my house increased 15% since we bought it in 2013 so that worked out nicely.

dredger · PostApr 22, 2017#232017-04-22T01:33+00:00

. .
The thing that gets me is what seems as a appreciable price difference in new build versus existing home prices in the area. Must be in the plus 100k range from what I can tell with new homes going north or well north of 300k and similar existing going 200-225k.

Which gets me to two thoughts, questions. Is new construction really that more expensive, and or land values in the areas of new construction really high enough to support premium on new construction? Heck, a lot of the new construction infill is priced at 300K or higher. My impression is part of the strong market for existing homes is not only driven by less supply historically (both new and existing) but also existing home being almost too affordable in St Louis. I state that because +10k over asking in a strong sellers market is not that huge relative to a lot of other metro areas..

quincunx · PostMay 30, 2017#242017-05-30T12:00+00:00

I have a couple friends having a hard time buying a house. They keep getting outbid. One listed for $175k went for $215k.

bigmclargehuge · PostMay 30, 2017#252017-05-30T17:00+00:00

quincunx wrote: ↑
May 30, 2017
I have a couple friends having a hard time buying a house. They keep getting outbid. One listed for $175k went for $215k.

Tell them to look downtown. Lots for sale in my building, including mine. Nothing moving very quick down there and the prices are down 15-25% of what most people payed.