What are your predictions for the city and region in the next year?
- 10K
I predict that downtown will finally be able to lure a major office tenant from either elsewhere in the St. Louis area or from another city.
At the very least, I think that the continuous rise in the vacancy rate will finally start to reverse itself as downtown continues to improve and become known as a fun and interesting destination.
At the very least, I think that the continuous rise in the vacancy rate will finally start to reverse itself as downtown continues to improve and become known as a fun and interesting destination.
How did we do last year? Here's the link from last year: St. Louis Rising: 2004 Predictions.
I will give my predictions for 2005 after I evaluate how I did for 2004.
-The Cardinals will announce a major developer for the Ballpark Village.
Well not quite, but close. Several developers are still exploring possibilities with Bryan Cave.
-A new midrise tower (10-20 stories), a condo building, new-to-St. Louis retail and restaurants will be announced near the ballpark.
Well not quite, but close. Several developers are still exploring possibilities with Bryan Cave. Looking good with the city's $25M tax incentive.
-Park East will get started by year's end.
Still got two weeks, but it's looking pretty scarce.
-A major retailer will announce plans for downtown St. Louis.
Close. Although unnamed, some retailer is coming to the Ely Walker Loft building to take up 52,000 square feet.
-Cortex (Biotech Corridor) will get its first new project.
Bingo!
-St. Louis University will release the rendering for its new $70-million research lab. It will be impressive.
Done!
-The Metro East will see more marked growth.
Well, housing starts are well above last years. A good indicator.
-MidAmerica Airport gets a cargo tenant.
Flunked, but it does have a domestic carrier now, Transmeridian. And believe it or not, I know two people who have actually flown to St. Louis from Florida on Transmeridian.
-A major corporation (or subsidiary) will move from St. Louis.
Fairly predictable. Olin moved it's Winchester Ammunition subsidiary to the south.
-Another major corporation will relocate offices to St. Louis.
Olin Corporation moved to St. Louis (Clayton) from Connecticut. Belden CDT consolidated offices in St. Louis after buying a Chicago competitor. Savvis moved all operations back to St. Louis.
-The St. Louis Galleria will announce major improvements, store additions due to increased competition.
Fairly predictable. Apple, Kenneth Cole, Sigrid Olsen, Steve Madden, etc. all came to the Galleria. Cartier left.
-Plaza Frontenac will continue to get new retailers. PF will land either Gucci, Burberry, Versace, Kenneth Cole, or Chanel.
Wrong. But Kenneth Cole did land at the Galleria. Gap Kids and Gap Body are closing at PF.
-Slay will be re-elected.
Wrong. Wrong year.
-Charles Dooley (if he runs) will be elected St. Louis County Executive.
Bingo!
-Major improvement plans for Lambert will be announced.
Rain still drips in buckets. But Lambert did just announce a major ad campaign - if that counts.
-A major housing development will be announced for Pruitt-Igoe site.
Wrong!!
I will give my predictions for 2005 after I evaluate how I did for 2004.
-The Cardinals will announce a major developer for the Ballpark Village.
Well not quite, but close. Several developers are still exploring possibilities with Bryan Cave.
-A new midrise tower (10-20 stories), a condo building, new-to-St. Louis retail and restaurants will be announced near the ballpark.
Well not quite, but close. Several developers are still exploring possibilities with Bryan Cave. Looking good with the city's $25M tax incentive.
-Park East will get started by year's end.
Still got two weeks, but it's looking pretty scarce.
-A major retailer will announce plans for downtown St. Louis.
Close. Although unnamed, some retailer is coming to the Ely Walker Loft building to take up 52,000 square feet.
-Cortex (Biotech Corridor) will get its first new project.
Bingo!
-St. Louis University will release the rendering for its new $70-million research lab. It will be impressive.
Done!
-The Metro East will see more marked growth.
Well, housing starts are well above last years. A good indicator.
-MidAmerica Airport gets a cargo tenant.
Flunked, but it does have a domestic carrier now, Transmeridian. And believe it or not, I know two people who have actually flown to St. Louis from Florida on Transmeridian.
-A major corporation (or subsidiary) will move from St. Louis.
Fairly predictable. Olin moved it's Winchester Ammunition subsidiary to the south.
-Another major corporation will relocate offices to St. Louis.
Olin Corporation moved to St. Louis (Clayton) from Connecticut. Belden CDT consolidated offices in St. Louis after buying a Chicago competitor. Savvis moved all operations back to St. Louis.
-The St. Louis Galleria will announce major improvements, store additions due to increased competition.
Fairly predictable. Apple, Kenneth Cole, Sigrid Olsen, Steve Madden, etc. all came to the Galleria. Cartier left.
-Plaza Frontenac will continue to get new retailers. PF will land either Gucci, Burberry, Versace, Kenneth Cole, or Chanel.
Wrong. But Kenneth Cole did land at the Galleria. Gap Kids and Gap Body are closing at PF.
-Slay will be re-elected.
Wrong. Wrong year.
-Charles Dooley (if he runs) will be elected St. Louis County Executive.
Bingo!
-Major improvement plans for Lambert will be announced.
Rain still drips in buckets. But Lambert did just announce a major ad campaign - if that counts.
-A major housing development will be announced for Pruitt-Igoe site.
Wrong!!
2005 predictions.............
-A major biotech/pharmaceutical firm will set up major operations in St. Louis.
-A state-of-the-art high-rise will be announced near the new ballpark or somewhere downtown. It will have a sleek design unlike anything in downtown St. Louis. It will be 25-30 stories.
-New office towers around the metro will get underway as demand increases.
-Donald Breckenridge/Clear Channel will break ground on the Kiel Opera House project (late summer or early Fall 2005).
-Two significant national retailers will be announced for downtown.
-The Grand Center TIF lawsuit is thrown out. TIF law is too broad.
-A large firm will move to St. Louis or emerge within St. Louis through a merger.
-Another residential tower will be announced for the Central West End.
-Lambert adds 20-25 flights.
-Developers are announced for the Army Ammunitions plant site in North St. Louis.
-National media exposure increases tremendously noting St. Louis' comeback.
-A major biotech/pharmaceutical firm will set up major operations in St. Louis.
-A state-of-the-art high-rise will be announced near the new ballpark or somewhere downtown. It will have a sleek design unlike anything in downtown St. Louis. It will be 25-30 stories.
-New office towers around the metro will get underway as demand increases.
-Donald Breckenridge/Clear Channel will break ground on the Kiel Opera House project (late summer or early Fall 2005).
-Two significant national retailers will be announced for downtown.
-The Grand Center TIF lawsuit is thrown out. TIF law is too broad.
-A large firm will move to St. Louis or emerge within St. Louis through a merger.
-Another residential tower will be announced for the Central West End.
-Lambert adds 20-25 flights.
-Developers are announced for the Army Ammunitions plant site in North St. Louis.
-National media exposure increases tremendously noting St. Louis' comeback.
I was looking back at the predictions for last year, and they were actually fairly good. Hopefully we can do as well this time. I will give mine later today or tommorrow. Arch City, I like yours though.
- 1,649
-A new midrise tower (10-20 stories), a condo building, new-to-St. Louis retail and restaurants will be announced near the ballpark.
Well not quite, but close. Several developers are still exploring possibilities with Bryan Cave. Looking good with the city's $25M tax incentive.
<A HREF="http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/s ... 6CC">Bryan Cave to stay put downtown</A>
Post-Dispatch
12/22/2004
Bryan Cave said today that its headquarters would remain in the Metropolitan Square Building in downtown St. Louis through 2022.
<A HREF="http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/s ... C">>>>read more</A>
^Well, at least that prediction was for 2004. 
Glad Bryan Cave is staying downtown though. It shows downtown is getting healthier.
Glad Bryan Cave is staying downtown though. It shows downtown is getting healthier.
Arch City wrote:^Well, at least that prediction was for 2004.
Glad Bryan Cave is staying downtown though. It shows downtown is getting healthier.
It doesn't make any sence to build new buildings when the space they have now isn't occupied.
Atlanta and Dallas are examples of overbuilt commercial markets. One couldn't help but to notice when traveling into Atlanta on I75 the wide freeway with 6 to 8 lanes full of traffic with a stunning skyline that will excite any urban enthusiast. When one gets off the freeway, one will see a city without culture and without vibrancy that one would expect. The same can be said about Dallas and many other cities with high vacancy rates.
I believe that St. Louis has the potential to do much better than Atlanta or Dallas with good planning. The city needs to create an experience for the residence and visitors alike. People should look forward to coming into the city. And leaving with a feeling of "I've been to St. Louis". (you know like when we leave chicago)
It doesn't make any sence to build new buildings when the space they have now isn't occupied.
I agree 100%. Downtown doesn't need more buildings, it needs tenants. There isn't much demand for downtown office space.
I don't think STL should put the cart before the horse. Great things are happening and progress is being made, but there's so much more that needs to be done before new buildings start getting built.
While I don't believe St. Louis should be reckless in commercial development like Atlanta or Dallas, I do think that speculative commercial development should be a part of the equation for downtown's continued ascension.
Clayton lured firms from downtown St. Louis and around the country (Olin Corporation) because of 1-million square feet of new speculative buildings ? Forsyth Centre, Shaw Park Plaza, and Plaza in Clayton ? built early in the millennium. Although the bleeding is calming, downtown St. Louis, in my opinion, has to stay on its feet if it doesn't want to lose other firms.
FYI, the city -despite its earnings tax- just gained all of the Clear Channel radio stations because of a speculative project ? The Highlands at Forest Park. The building is state-of-the-art new.
Mayors and leaders since the Bosley administration have spoken on the need to develop 1-million sq. ft. of new office space downtown. When Ernst and Young announced their move to Clayton, Mayor Harmon went on record saying downtown needs at least 1-million sq. ft. of technologically advanced buildings. With St. Louis' conservative building nature, it has yet to happen.
Some things to consider: Downtown's commercial building stock is aging. There are no other major commercial buildings being built in the city except built-to-suit ? Anheuser-Busch, Nooter, and recently A.G. Edwards. Commercial buildings like the former PET and Missouri Pacific (Union Pacific) are being taken off the market for condos. Other Class B and C spaces are being converted to condos and apartments. Few owners are pumping money into renovating existing structures like they should. The only significant office projects proposed are The Bottle District and Ballpark Village; and the OPO is not a major office project.
There's another downtown law firm, I believe, that said it will be looking for more space in the future. Around 2008 (or something like that), they'll be looking for new space in the region. I can't find the article.
For the 2004 third quarter, Trammell Crow reported almost 400,000 square feet of office absorption in St. Louis because of the rise in jobs. Although the market is still soft, demand for office space is increasing they noted.
Trammell Crow: St. Louis Office Market Report
I personally think that if downtown is to continue to compete with Maryland Heights, Clayton, Chesterfield, and St. Charles County, it must seriously consider speculative projects- not recklessly- but smart. Granted we don't want higher vacancy rates for downtown, we also don't want more job or headquarters losses for the city.
Clayton lured firms from downtown St. Louis and around the country (Olin Corporation) because of 1-million square feet of new speculative buildings ? Forsyth Centre, Shaw Park Plaza, and Plaza in Clayton ? built early in the millennium. Although the bleeding is calming, downtown St. Louis, in my opinion, has to stay on its feet if it doesn't want to lose other firms.
FYI, the city -despite its earnings tax- just gained all of the Clear Channel radio stations because of a speculative project ? The Highlands at Forest Park. The building is state-of-the-art new.
Mayors and leaders since the Bosley administration have spoken on the need to develop 1-million sq. ft. of new office space downtown. When Ernst and Young announced their move to Clayton, Mayor Harmon went on record saying downtown needs at least 1-million sq. ft. of technologically advanced buildings. With St. Louis' conservative building nature, it has yet to happen.
Some things to consider: Downtown's commercial building stock is aging. There are no other major commercial buildings being built in the city except built-to-suit ? Anheuser-Busch, Nooter, and recently A.G. Edwards. Commercial buildings like the former PET and Missouri Pacific (Union Pacific) are being taken off the market for condos. Other Class B and C spaces are being converted to condos and apartments. Few owners are pumping money into renovating existing structures like they should. The only significant office projects proposed are The Bottle District and Ballpark Village; and the OPO is not a major office project.
There's another downtown law firm, I believe, that said it will be looking for more space in the future. Around 2008 (or something like that), they'll be looking for new space in the region. I can't find the article.
For the 2004 third quarter, Trammell Crow reported almost 400,000 square feet of office absorption in St. Louis because of the rise in jobs. Although the market is still soft, demand for office space is increasing they noted.
Trammell Crow: St. Louis Office Market Report
I personally think that if downtown is to continue to compete with Maryland Heights, Clayton, Chesterfield, and St. Charles County, it must seriously consider speculative projects- not recklessly- but smart. Granted we don't want higher vacancy rates for downtown, we also don't want more job or headquarters losses for the city.
- 10K
I think it's Blackwell Sanders that's going to be looking for new space soon. They're currently in the Laclede Gas Building.
- 1,054
Archcity,
Have your predictions come true?
Lambert has 50 more flights I think, highrises at bottle district and one proposed at Lindell and Euclid in CWE, Borders (significant retailer) in downtown announced, Army Ammunitions plant in North STL has a developer or is puching ahead, and St. Louis has received national exposure.
Have your predictions come true?
Lambert has 50 more flights I think, highrises at bottle district and one proposed at Lindell and Euclid in CWE, Borders (significant retailer) in downtown announced, Army Ammunitions plant in North STL has a developer or is puching ahead, and St. Louis has received national exposure.
No, Arch City just knows what the hell he's talking about.
Thanks for all the great posts, Arch!!
Thanks for all the great posts, Arch!!
^Thanks, steve.
LOL! No crystal ball.
Looking over that list I wonder though. Especially after seeing this....
-A state-of-the-art high-rise will be announced near the new ballpark or somewhere downtown. It will have a sleek design unlike anything in downtown St. Louis. It will be 25-30 stories.
LOL! No crystal ball.
Looking over that list I wonder though. Especially after seeing this....
-A state-of-the-art high-rise will be announced near the new ballpark or somewhere downtown. It will have a sleek design unlike anything in downtown St. Louis. It will be 25-30 stories.
- 10K
You never know. I just found out that the building I work in downtown is now 100% leased. If downtown can retain its current tenants (Blackwell Sanders, cough-cough) and continue to attract new ones, maybe enough space will be absorbed to justify new construction.