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PostApr 27, 2008#76

So you're saying it's pure coincidence that the quake occurred during a full moon? I'm not so convinced that the moon doesn't play a part in triggering earthquakes. Some famous examples:



1. The December 26, 2004, magnitude 9.1 in Sumatra, Indonesia, occurred on the day of a full moon.

2. The March 27, 1964, magnitude 9.2 earthquake in Alaska occurred on the day of maximum high tide.

3. The February 7, 1812, estimated magnitude 8.0 earthquake along the New Madrid fault is said to have occurred during a lunar eclipse.



Scientist and author Myron L. Fuller noted a monthly seismic frequency pattern for the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes, which he described in his 1912 book titled The New Madrid Earthquake. He noted that, "With one marked exception the groups [of New Madrid seismic events] occur approximately either at times of new or full moon."

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PostApr 27, 2008#77

Come on, guys; this isn't the middle ages. This full moon stuff is nonsense.

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PostApr 27, 2008#78

Framer wrote:Come on, guys; this isn't the middle ages. This full moon stuff is nonsense.


Go, now, your way, I have no longer space

of time to make a longer sermoning! -Chaucer

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PostApr 27, 2008#79

citysoul wrote:So you're saying it's pure coincidence that the quake occurred during a full moon? I'm not so convinced that the moon doesn't play a part in triggering earthquakes.
There is no doubt earthquakes occur during full moons -- earthquakes occur every single day!

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PostApr 27, 2008#80

citysoul wrote:So you're saying it's pure coincidence that the quake occurred during a full moon? I'm not so convinced that the moon doesn't play a part in triggering earthquakes. Some famous examples:



1. The December 26, 2004, magnitude 9.1 in Sumatra, Indonesia, occurred on the day of a full moon.

2. The March 27, 1964, magnitude 9.2 earthquake in Alaska occurred on the day of maximum high tide.

3. The February 7, 1812, estimated magnitude 8.0 earthquake along the New Madrid fault is said to have occurred during a lunar eclipse.


I notice you failed to list the hundreds of major earthquakes that didn't occur during a full moon.

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PostApr 27, 2008#81

innov8ion wrote:
citysoul wrote:So you're saying it's pure coincidence that the quake occurred during a full moon? I'm not so convinced that the moon doesn't play a part in triggering earthquakes.
There is no doubt earthquakes occur during full moons -- earthquakes occur every single day!


Yep, there is a 1 in 28 chance that an earthquake will occur on a full moon. It's bound to happen by chance.



The Earth is a far more powerful force on itself than any moon could ever hope to be.

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PostApr 27, 2008#82

citysoul wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the quake on 4/18 occur during a full moon? I've heard that the moon's gravitational pull is thought to affect shifting of the earth's plates.
Why would the moon's gravitational pull be different/stronger on full moon days than any other day?

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PostApr 27, 2008#83

Urban Elitist wrote:
citysoul wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the quake on 4/18 occur during a full moon? I've heard that the moon's gravitational pull is thought to affect shifting of the earth's plates.
Why would the moon's gravitational pull be different/stronger on full moon days than any other day?


Precisely.

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PostApr 27, 2008#84

The Central Scrutinizer wrote:
Urban Elitist wrote:
citysoul wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the quake on 4/18 occur during a full moon? I've heard that the moon's gravitational pull is thought to affect shifting of the earth's plates.
Why would the moon's gravitational pull be different/stronger on full moon days than any other day?


Precisely.


Someone didn't pay attention in science class. :roll:

The increased lunar gravitational pull during the full moon is clearly evidenced by high tides. This force also affects the earths crust.



From Geophysics in the News December 1, 2004:



"Seismologists Show Tides Can Apply Pressure on Earthquake Faults



Does the pull of the sun and moon help to trigger earthquakes? To explore this question, researchers studied tidal models and compared them to past earthquake records. The researchers concluded that ocean water does apply pressure on fault line, creating additional stresses on faults that would break anyway."



There's no reason not to believe that something as powerful as the moon's gravitational force couldn't affect our tectonic plates. Clearly, there is a direct correlation. Sure, earthquakes occur every day, some place on earth. But it's curious how the most severe quakes seem to always happen during a full moon.

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PostApr 27, 2008#85

You can believe in fairy tales if you'd like. And by the way, I've got a bridge to sell you.

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PostApr 28, 2008#86

The Central Scrutinizer wrote:
citysoul wrote:So you're saying it's pure coincidence that the quake occurred during a full moon? I'm not so convinced that the moon doesn't play a part in triggering earthquakes. Some famous examples:



1. The December 26, 2004, magnitude 9.1 in Sumatra, Indonesia, occurred on the day of a full moon.

2. The March 27, 1964, magnitude 9.2 earthquake in Alaska occurred on the day of maximum high tide.

3. The February 7, 1812, estimated magnitude 8.0 earthquake along the New Madrid fault is said to have occurred during a lunar eclipse.


I notice you failed to list the hundreds of major earthquakes that didn't occur during a full moon.


Earthquakes may or may not be more likely during a full moon (I lean more towards other factors having a larger influence with the moon only having a minor influence), but have there even been hundreds of earthquakes above an 8.0 since we starting recording earthquake data?

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PostApr 28, 2008#87

Meteo wrote:Earthquakes may or may not be more likely during a full moon (I lean more towards other factors having a larger influence with the moon only having a minor influence), but have there even been hundreds of earthquakes above an 8.0 since we starting recording earthquake data?
In fact, yes. Earthquakes over 8.0 on the Richter scale occur once a year on average. Earthquakes over 9.0 occur once every 20 years on average. There have been hundreds of earthquakes this strong that did not occur during a full moon. Citysoul has only mentioned three that have. Ref: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richter_ma ... magnitudes


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake_prediction#Tidal_forces wrote:...The latter, which arises from the periodic alignment of the Sun and Moon, has often been claimed in the popular press to incubate earthquakes (sometimes termed the "syzygy" effect) and occasionally for small datasets in the scientific literature (e.g.,[3]), but generally such effects do not appear in careful studies of large datasets.



Syzygy, which is not given much credence in the scientific community, is motivated by the observation that, historically, there have been some great earthquakes whose timing with when the tidal forces are near their maximum.


Generally speaking, the same people that believe in this also believe in UFO's and other similar phenomena. As for me, I'll stick with science over science fiction.

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PostApr 28, 2008#88

Just for the record: The combined gravitational pull of the Sun and the Moon is greatest during a new moon.

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PostApr 28, 2008#89

^ OHHHHHP!

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PostApr 28, 2008#90

citysoul wrote: Someone didn't pay attention in science class. :roll:

The increased lunar gravitational pull during the full moon is clearly evidenced by high tides. This force also affects the earths crust.


Uh.....yes it's you who didn't pay attention in science class.

The mass of the moon does not change. So only a drastic change in distance of the moon to earth can alter its gravitational influence. Considering the pedigree-apogee difference is only ~40k kilometers there is only a minimal change in the moon's gravitational pull.



Not only this, but the lunar phases are not in sync with the period of the moon's revolution around earth. Since that probably went over your head I'll explain further. The full moon is not a way to tell how close the moon is to earth. This means the Moon's distance from earth could be at its closest on say a new moon. That my friend is basic physics.


From Geophysics in the News December 1, 2004:



"Seismologists Show Tides Can Apply Pressure on Earthquake Faults



Does the pull of the sun and moon help to trigger earthquakes? To explore this question, researchers studied tidal models and compared them to past earthquake records. The researchers concluded that ocean water does apply pressure on fault line, creating additional stresses on faults that would break anyway."



There's no reason not to believe that something as powerful as the moon's gravitational force couldn't affect our tectonic plates. Clearly, there is a direct correlation. Sure, earthquakes occur every day, some place on earth. But it's curious how the most severe quakes seem to always happen during a full moon.


So because you "quoted" one obscure article from 2004 you think this is true? You have yet to post ANY evidence to support you so called "direct correlation" please show me your data and statistics that support your "correlation".



not to mention Correlation does not imply causation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlatio ... l_fallacy)

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PostApr 30, 2008#91

I don't think my quoting from an "obscure article" is any worse than referencing Wikipedia. Jeez, people tend to quote Wiki as if it's the supreme authority and final word of all that exists. [-o<



Anyway, my point wasn't to get into a big scientific debate (after all, how many of us are actually geologists, astronomers, physics professors, etc. ?) I'm simply saying that some of the most noted major earthquakes seem to have occurred during similar lunar conditions.



What we St Louisans should really be concerned about is how truly ill-prepared we are for a major earthquake. Seems to me that if a quake the magnitude of the 1812 tremor would happen today, our metro area would grind to a screeching halt.

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PostApr 30, 2008#92

citysoul wrote:So you're saying it's pure coincidence that the quake occurred during a full moon? I'm not so convinced that the moon doesn't play a part in triggering earthquakes. Some famous examples:



1. The December 26, 2004, magnitude 9.1 in Sumatra, Indonesia, occurred on the day of a full moon.

2. The March 27, 1964, magnitude 9.2 earthquake in Alaska occurred on the day of maximum high tide.

3. The February 7, 1812, estimated magnitude 8.0 earthquake along the New Madrid fault is said to have occurred during a lunar eclipse.



Scientist and author Myron L. Fuller noted a monthly seismic frequency pattern for the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes, which he described in his 1912 book titled The New Madrid Earthquake. He noted that, "With one marked exception the groups [of New Madrid seismic events] occur approximately either at times of new or full moon."




SHHHHH!!! The American public isnt supposed to know this!!

Or else they might find out about Pres. Bush's Earthquake machine, which was financed by Oprah

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PostApr 30, 2008#93

If Pres Bush has an earthquake machine, it's sitting somewhere in a Texas barn collecting dust while he's busy playing war games.

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PostApr 30, 2008#94

citysoul wrote:Anyway, my point wasn't to get into a big scientific debate (after all, how many of us are actually geologists, astronomers, physics professors, etc. ?) I'm simply saying that some of the most noted major earthquakes seem to have occurred during similar lunar conditions.
Not a geologist, per se, but I have more than enough education on the subject to say you are a bit of a nutter if you believe that seismic events and full moons are in any way related. As Urban Elitist posted correlation does not imply causation. Even if there is a high degree of correlation, which there is not, as UE said, correlation does not imply causation.

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PostApr 30, 2008#95

citysoul wrote: I don't think my quoting from an "obscure article" is any worse than referencing Wikipedia. Jeez, people tend to quote Wiki as if it's the supreme authority and final word of all that exists. [-o<
I didn't "reference" Wikipedia. I posted basic information on gravity and physics that most with a high school education would already know, therefore I didn't reference that info at all. Additionally, I notice you side-stepped all of the relevant actual scientific info I posted on the moon's gravitational pull....how convienent.



I linked an article to correlation does not imply causation so that you could read up on it since it is obvious you have no idea what that logical fallicy is.


citysoul wrote:Anyway, my point wasn't to get into a big scientific debate (after all, how many of us are actually geologists, astronomers, physics professors, etc. ?) I'm simply saying that some of the most noted major earthquakes seem to have occurred during similar lunar conditions.
Really? It seemed like you were trying to get into a scientific debate to me. Go reread your own posts Mr. Backpeddle. And I DO have a hard scientific backround with graduate level education.



Oh yeah, "some" of the worlds largest quakes occured on full moons. :roll:

How about you look at all the major quakes that didn't occur on full moons, my bet is they outnumber the ones you listed by 28:1.....


citysoul wrote:What we St Louisans should really be concerned about is how truly ill-prepared we are for a major earthquake. Seems to me that if a quake the magnitude of the 1812 tremor would happen today, our metro area would grind to a screeching halt.
Nice segway into a Red Herring . BTW not "referencing" Wikipedia here as red herrings are common knowledge, just providing info for you to read and learn.



Its obvious you have no true knowledge of science, so how about you stop talking about things you absolutely do not understand.

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PostMay 01, 2008#96

LOL - why is everybody so worked up over a discussion on gravity and earthquakes? #-o

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PostMay 01, 2008#97

Let me try and get a few quick points across, Urban Elitist. First:



"not to mention Correlation does not imply causation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlatio ... l_fallacy)"



Linking to this ^ isn't referencing Wikipedia?? Hmm. Then why does it take you directly to, um, WIKIPEDIA? [-X



"Really? It seemed like you were trying to get into a scientific debate to me."



^Like with most science, more than one possible conclusion can usually be reached. I really have NO intention of arguing the earthquake/moon issue. It's like debating politics; no one is really going to sway the opinion of others by arguing their views.

Your conclusion in regards to the earthquake topic is not necessarily the "right" one. NOR IS MINE. But, like anyone else, I am entitled to my own views and should be free to express my own conclusions!



"And I DO have a hard scientific backround with graduate level education."



^Good for you! And while you're at it, why not use your infinite wisdom to belittle others and feel all superior? Don't think that you do that? Well, how about these fine quotes...



"Since that probably went over your head I'll explain further"

"...it is obvious you have no idea what that logical fallicy is. "

"Its obvious you have no true knowledge of science, so how about you stop talking about things you absolutely do not understand."



Since we're taking pot shots, I should point out, Mr Education, that your sentence, "Nice segway into a Red Herring", is quite interesting.

Since you LOVE Wiki, take a look at these two items:



1. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

(Redirected from Segway)

Segway PT

The Segway PT is two-wheeled, self-balancing electric vehicle invented by Dean Kamen and unveiled in December 2001. It is produced by Segway Inc. of New Hampshire.



2. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For the two-wheeled transportation device, see Segway PT. For the rock band, see Segue (band).

A segue is a smooth transition from one topic or section to the next





Meanwhile...I most certainly DID intend to segue to another topic....the actual topic of this thread: earthquakes.

I previously stated that the St Louis metro area is ill-prepared for a major quake. I'd be interested in hearing other's opinions on this point.

That includes you, too, Urban Elitist. I'd very much like if you were to continue participating in the earthquake discussion, to give your views and thoughts. But if you are intent on continuing to belittle me, I will not respond to your posts. Let's bring this thread back on topic, shall we?

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PostMay 01, 2008#98

^Bottom line. While you continue to argue semantics, you ignore all calls for you to back up your claims. No one is agruing opinion here, you claim there is a corrolation, yet you post not data to support it. Additionally, you post no rational theory to support any correlation of data there may be(which you still have not shown). You cliam "no one here has X and Y backround", then when I inform you that I do, you attempt to dismiss that. Post some scientific proof, or condede your point. You came into this thread with a ridiculous theory, and never backed any of it up. Now you're trying to save face by making long winded red herring posts to distact from your initial arguments.



Now I'll discuss St. Louis's preparedness for earthquaqes. We're not prepared. If the big one hits we are screwed.

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PostMay 01, 2008#99

Urban Elitist wrote:Now I'll discuss St. Louis's preparedness for earthquaqes. We're not prepared. If the big one hits we are screwed.
If you survive the big one, go west and into the Ozarks; do not follow any major rivers. Somewhere I think I've heard that MoDOT assumes, when the big one hits, that all major river crossings will be lost. As such the only way out of St. Louis County and City will be via Manchester.



Million plus people on four lanes? I hope you have a bike and a set of hiking boots.

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PostMay 01, 2008#100

Mill204 wrote:As such the only way out of St. Louis County and City will be via Manchester.
Assuming the Manchester bridge over I-270 survives... :wink:

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