2018 Predictions

[stlhistory]

Nothing gets you in the holiday spirit like making bold predictions.
1) City homicides down from 2017 peak
2) Four 20+ story buildings in St. Louis region start construction
3) Nashville gets Amazon HQ2
4) The state legislature moves on regional governance (statewide ballot, legislative change, etc)
5) SLPS elected and appointed boards move to hybrid governance in transition plan

[PreserveandgrowSTL]

1. Crime rates go way down. Not sure how this will be accomplished, but hopeful.
2. Amazon HQ2 goes to Atlanta, but I genuinely believe STL has a shot. Let’s wait and see.
3. South Broadway takes off. Developers start buying up the parking lots from parking companies and begin proposing several skyline altering high rises.
4. We see another Clayton high rise proposal.
5. The Koplar lot next to One Hundred gets an equally impressive proposal.
6. Unfortunately, I don’t think we will see many business developments in 2018. We may see another acquisition.
7. St Louis will land flights to London and Frankfurt.
8. Donald Trump is impeached and removed from office.
9. Jefferson Arms and others all are well underway.
10. Blues go deep into the playoffs. No cup this year, though.

I think 2018 will be a great year for STL development wise. This could outpace 2015s construction boom.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[St.Louis1764]

1.Blues make it to 3rd round play either Kings or Knights
2.Cardinals acquire a another big bat
3.With a new chief in charge reduction in crime becomes more noticeable
4.Census show Illinois continues to bleed residence the same with North St.Louis
5.Amazon announces its 10 finalist cities which are Boston Atlanta Pittsburgh Dallas Denver Detroit NYC D.C. Austin Chicago with the winner being Atlanta
6.St.Louis's economy continues to perform well maybe hitting a record for best ever performing economy
7.300 Broadway breaks ground
8. Fair St.Louis will see a record year in attendance ever
9. Historic Chouteau's Landing gets a committed investor in redeveloping the area
10. After missing out on Amazon St.Louis leaders reveal ambitious plans on the Historic N.Riverfront
Extra: St.Louis gives hints on a revamp of the convention center

Overall Downtown Midtown CWE will see continued positive investment possibly a plethora of new developments maybe talks of new tallest residential?Also investment in the entire city becomes more widespread
The entire region particularly the Missouri side sees positive growth

[chriss752]

My predictions are as follows...

1. Chemical Building finally gets a redevelopment plant that will work
2. Drury reveals Laclede's Landing Tower
3. The former Cupples X site will have a new plan
4. 300 South Broadway gets underway
5. Millennium Hotel sold
6. AT&T Center will be sold but no plan announced to change it for new uses.
7. City sees more growth in population thus pushing new low-rise proposals on the South Side
8. One Hundred breaks ground
9. 4 or 5 new high-rise/sky scraper proposals for both the City and Clayton
10. City demolishes Locust and Tucker garage
11. St. Charles begins to boom on new hotels and residential buildings that will change the 5th Street and Main Street corridor
12. Developer purchases land from Paul McKee and proposes big changes to the area near the NGA

[dylank]

1. 300 breaks ground in June
2. Rumors of BPV tenants
3. City Foundry construction
4. Armory News (Tenants, groundbreaking, movement...)
5. One Hundred breaks ground in January
6. Chemical sits another year while RX garners more $$ and support
7. Dwntwn Locust apartments are completed; construction begins on the town home edition. (Possibly new renderings)?
8. One new high rise proposal in Clayton ignores Nimby's and challenges height of Centene towers.
9. Positive press for downtown and additional focus on NGA.
10. Central West End proposal with no incentives and smart, urban design.
11. 4101 Manchester breaks ground in the Grove.
12. Delmar Loop low rise proposals break ground. (Church chicken and gas station site).
13. More news on Jefferson Connector project.
14. New Homes completed in the Grove spawn new single family boom in the Southside.

[dbInSouthCity]

1. Blues win the Cup
2. Jefferson Arms looks just as it does today
3. 300 and BPV get started
4. Annie Rice beats Paul Fehler 57% to 43% in the 8th ward special election
5. Someone buys Butler Brothers
6. Someone announces plans for the empty parking lot on Wash Ave between 19th and 18th
7. No movement on Metrolink expansion
8. New statewide gas tax on the ballot in November
9. Cardinals make the playoffs
10. Trump visits Missouri 3 times.

[dredger]

Have to agree with a big year for downtown. Specifically downtown shines over CORTEX even though Foundry/Armory/Aloft & hotels on FPP & York break ground.

1. 300 breaks ground. Nashville development regrets flipping the lot next door.
2. Railway Exchange lands Square & a server farm/cloud- Speculation but assume that Square founders are in the investor mix
3. Nestle (IT relocation)/Koman announce Cupple X.
4. Jeff arms go forward with retail space and apartments. Hotel announced as phase II.
5. BPV announces a phase III office building at end of year as NGA gains steam & some opportunities arrive.. Gut feels it will be underwhelming for site. Think Foundry phase II office in the wrong spot
6. Hotel on Jeff Ave moves forward but most proposals outside of BPV/Loews or the boutique hotels underway will stall.
7. My Outlier - Amazon doesn't pick a HQ2 in 2018 but on the side grabs ATT One Center for a major presence/consolidation of Midwest offices.
8. City finally proposes a streetcar/BRT. It will Jeff Ave over Grand or Delmar/loop extension into CWE in order to take advantage of NGA progress . Downside will be no good way to interface with metrolink because no new stations are proposed.
9. What won't happen - Chemical building, Old Muni Courts development (both will happen if others happened first) and Lacledes Landing (Drury will pull trigger once CVC announces a major upgrade) nor Koplar's property or Drury Kingshighway (too late with another major push for new high rise residential units & hotel rooms already happening).
10. Unfortunately, county short sighted politics means no movement on Convention Center ballroom upgrade/expansion let alone dome upgrades/expansion.

Clayton/County/Region

11. Another Clayton CBD high rise residential proposal.
12. Apogee tower change gears and proposes new location within Clayton CBD for their office tower.
13. New developers behind Boulevards buys out the property next door and announce phase III for which was supposed to be phase III originally. Not a tower and the current property owner might just go ahead announce a mixed use apartment themselves.
14. Accension merger happens, not a loss but will hurt when both hospital parties pick a neutral spot for HQ. HQ will be near Washington DC where the biggest health care spender resides.
15. Drury announces another freeway cookie cutter hotel.
16. Region continues to heavily subsidize distribution space while MO statehouse lack of investing in people/infrastructure continues to convince manufacturers to look elsewhere. MO Gov only makes it worse. The silver lining is Boeings investment in the region.
17. Gas tax raise would pass if state can even get the political will to put it on a ballot.

[St.Louis1764]

11.AT&T sits empty most of next year
12.Chemical gets another developer but remains vacant
13.Square commits to Railway Exchange possibly target too
14.JA moves forward
15.Cardinals win division if they get a much needed big bat if not they'll be in 3rd place again
16.Talks heat up again about MLS to St.Louis
17.Theres no Drury proposal on the Landing
18.After Arch grounds are fully operational Millennium hotel investor moves forward with a proposal for redevelopment may include tearing the complex down
19.Numerous cranes dot the St.Louis skyline
20.there be no koplar announcement no drury hotel
21.By year end Ballpark village 3 renderings include another residential with office (Nestle) component tallest 20- 45 floors but need another tax handout to make it happen
22.More talks on Metro N/S expansion becoming more of modern sleek street car
23.Major North St.Louis redevelopment that doesn't involve McKee
24.Clayton see's a few more proposals including 2 new residential's
25. Foundry Armory Cortex hotel full steam ahead first new residential proposal for GC

[chriss752]

11.AT&T sits empty most of next year
12.Chemical gets another developer but remains vacant
13.Square commits to Railway Exchange possibly target too
14.JA moves forward...
...18.After Arch grounds are fully operational Millennium hotel investor moves forward with a proposal for redevelopment may include tearing the complex down
19.Numerous cranes dot the St.Louis skyline...
...21.By year end Ballpark village 3 renderings include another residential with office (Nestle) component tallest 20- 45 floors but need another tax handout to make it happen...
...23.Major North St.Louis redevelopment that doesn't involve McKee
24.Clayton see's a few more proposals including 2 new residential...

I agree with all of these. Numebr 21 is one that I hope really happens. Nestle, not so much.

[goat314]

1. Jefferson Arms and RRX move forward
2. BPV Phase 2 apartment is sold out before construction even ends, prompting phase 3 proposals with more hi-rise living.
3. 300 moves forward
4. Union Station ferris wheel breaks ground
5. Most downtown hotels move forward, but hotel boom comes to an end.
6. Chouteau Greenway proposals make Chouteau's Landing a much more viable investment option.
7. SLU Hospital constructions sparks legitimate TOD proposals for Grand Station.
8. N-S Metrolink is deemed not cost-effective without county support, city looks at modern streetcar alternative with BRT overlays.
9. ATT building sits vacant.
10. Rumbling of big North Riverfront development plan, but nothing solid.
11. Grand Center sees significant mixed-use proposals.
12. Grove sees more mix-use proposals and becomes hottest neighborhood in St. Louis.
13. Central West End stays on fire with more
14. Biggest Cortex phase ever is proposed and it's impressive.
15. Phase I and 2 of Foundry is secured.
16. Increased density sparks more retail proposals in Central Corridor.
17. North Hanley becomes St. Louis County's first major TOD proposal.
18. Stenger barely loses in a nasty county executive race.
19. Moleg gets bullish on St. Louis regional consolidation despite local push back.
20. Clayton sees a couple major mixed-use proposals.
21. Rumblings of a NBA expansion in STL or possible future NFL relocation (hail mary) by 2025.
22. County Metrolink studies are still not finished.

[dredger]

^ Goat314, I thought I was being bullish but it looks like you want all in for the central corridor to go along with JA, Raiway exchange, 300 & another BPV high rise.. That will be a big year if that type of momentum can come together

14. Biggest Cortex phase ever is proposed and it's impressive.

21. Rumblings of a NBA expansion in STL or possible future NFL relocation (hail mary) by 2025.

I can't image 14. happening without a big anchor or expansion in the works. Someone that Wexford is helping to bring in or land from either Coast. Interesting to know what you think, and what next phase will be heavy on the office or mixed use/residence. I think hotel rooms are being spoken for relatively quickly & hope the Armory phase II with hotel tower moves forward. Would fit well with your SLU comment.

Plus, I thought I was going big on ATT but still topped by your NBA prediction - believe dual franchise, single arena is hands down the best business model for both NBA and NHL in the majority of their markets. Whether it be arena use, concession to back office to cable sports.

[rheights]

1. New investor joins the MLS2STL group to give us a shot at an expansion team.
2. Carondelet and Bevo see a significant uptick in investment in commercial and residential rehabs.
3. Hamburger Mary's opens downtown and enjoys great success.
4. Enterprise helps kick-start bikeshare in St. Louis with a sponsorship; a legitimate plan gets off the ground this year.
5. At least one more residential high-rise is proposed Downtown.

[whitherSTL]

Love these predictions but my money every year goes with dblinsouthcity.

[dredger]

Love these predictions but my money every year goes with dblinsouthcity.

Pay out can't be much since dblnsouthcity is playing it safe IMO, well, except on the Blues. That prediction might pay out pretty well if you made your bet with bookies before start of season.

[dbInSouthCity]

Love these predictions but my money every year goes with dblinsouthcity.

Pay out can't be much since dblnsouthcity is playing it safe IMO, well, except on the Blues. That prediction might pay out pretty well if you made your bet with bookies before start of season.

I am taking considerable risk with 5&6, and 7 really, if there EVER was going to be movement on the metrolink its 2018.

[imperialmog]

I have a hard time reading into what may happen next year because you have social tensions plus an economy that is running a long time since the last recession.

A lot of issues i think think will be contingent on the crime rate in the city. Until that starts to be resolved i think issues like metrolink expansion and regional governance will be frozen until then and if its not resolved it could create more entrenched provincialism. The crime issue will likely coincide with the national issue of opiods. High chance some sort of breaking point event will occur as it relates to crime that could be anything. Bets are the issue causing it starts to recede, change in STLMPD strategy that works, or some sort of intervention that will be controversial coming from the state or federal government.

As for regional governance I see it not going anywhere if only local officals have their way and would only move forward if you remove locals having the only opinion on it by say a statewide vote or the legislature dictating local government. The social, political, and racial climate frankly is too poisionous to get this done and could see as a wildcard movement western and southern parts of St. Louis County try to separate from the County.

Other issues i see could come is continued growth in startups and possibly revocations of tech jobs from the coasts due to cost concerns mounting. Also the startup community and transplants related to them will likely start to seek a greater voice in local politics giving a breath of fresh air to the local political debate that is often stale from lack of new ideas or unfamiliarity with areas not here.

As for sports i think the local teams will do better than last year. One thing to watch is they might start to speak out more on crime issues in the city since it may be starting to hurt their ticket sales and getting pressure from season ticket holders. Concern is if its not addressed in the near future the Blues and Cardinals may start hinting at building new stadiums outside of the City in West County or St. Charles County over crime issues and being closer to ticketholders in a move very similar to what the Braves did.

Other issues to look for is announcements of new flights to Europe announced in 2018 from here and possibly Southwest Airlines announces a new crew base will be set up locally bringing in even more high paying jobs to the area to reinforce their commitment to this market.

The Amazon HQ2 situation will be they won't put it here. (if i had a hunch it will be DC metro to be near political players to have their ear in case of any antitrust issues that could arise) But its possible they might have other centers they want to work on to improve delivery and here would be a strong place for it and irregardless they will likely have a larger job footprint in the area.

[dredger]

Love these predictions but my money every year goes with dblinsouthcity.

Pay out can't be much since dblnsouthcity is playing it safe IMO, well, except on the Blues. That prediction might pay out pretty well if you made your bet with bookies before start of season.

I am taking considerable risk with 5&6, and 7 really, if there EVER was going to be movement on the metrolink its 2018.

Either way hope your right on and I'm wrong because fixed transit/BRT in at least one north south city corridor might spur much needed north side development. I think NGA will simply not be enough and even more so with McKee in control of a large part of the developable area surrounding it.

[gone corporate]

2018 Predictions

1. The lawsuit by the City, County, and State against Stan Kroenke, the Rams LLC, and the NFL will go to full trial. Discovery will be very damaging. If STL wins, and the fraud charges stick, then there will be massive punitive damage awards, possible in the nine-figures and maybe producing an annuity-like trail of team/League revenues to STL. There will be appeals.
2. St. Louis-Lambert International Airport will not go through with a lease to a private entity.
3. Direct flights to Germany are likely with the Bayer-Monsanto merger.
4. More flights will go into Concourse D.
5. STL will make the final cuts for Amazon HQ2; I continue to think we have a 20% chance of winning it all.
6. Regardless of the final decision on HQ2, Express Scripts and Amazon will partner up.
7. Private equity funding to emerging companies will increase, from both local and national investors.
8. More international companies will be establishing their US HQs in STL, especially Israelis and Irish.
9. Steve Stenger loses reelection. Big time.
10. The Missouri General Assembly will push hard for regional government consolidation, maybe becoming a statewide ballot issue.
11. Medicinal cannabis also gets on the statewide ballot.
12. Boeing gets the contract to manufacture new fighter-trainer aircraft.
13. West Lake Landfill gets more federal cleanup money, but as they work to fix it, they discover it’s a lot worse than is currently known. Maybe Coldwater Creek will get the coverage it deserves.
14. More barge traffic will include standard cargo containers, offloaded at America’s Central Port in Granite City.
15. The STL Regional Freightway gets their funding for fully redoing the Merchants Bridge.
16. High speed rail between Chicago and STL will open and be reasonably successful for passengers, and more successful for cargo.
17. The Loop Trolley opens, finally, and is minimally successful.
18. There will be some progress towards Hyperloop between STL and KC, but not a groundbreaking.
19. Photos will get out showing the NGA West site is getting built very deep underground.
20. Efforts towards an MLS expansion franchise will re-emerge for the next round of teams, but it’ll take a major local investor to step up.
21. The national press eats up the Arch Grounds renovations upon its reopening. Which is nice.

Dark Horse: Blues get to the Finals.

[chriss752]

I am making a prediction regarding Ballpark Village for 2018, a Phase 3 Office Tower will be unveiled anchored by ESPN (who will replace Fox Sports Midwest). Furthermore, I could see Spire (Laclede Gas) wanting to move some other offices around the region closer to their downtown office, so occupying either the current under construction or this hopeful tower is a possibility.

[jstriebel]

1. Amazon surprises everyone and chooses St. Louis for HQ2. Begins by filling the by then former AT&T Building.

2. Blues get healthy and make a wise trade deadline addition to go on a strong stretch and postseason run. Ugly white numbers ultimately prevent them from winning a Cup.

3. Enterprise chooses not to takeover naming rights for the Scottrade Center, and instead in a surprise move, Nestle Purina steps up to officially name the building the Nestle Purina Center, unofficially Checkerdome 2.0.

4. After another sluggish start, the Cardinals front office is forced to admit their long obvious mistake and fires Mike Matheny in June. Mike Schildt takes over on an interim basis, and the Cardinals never look back going on a great run culminating in their 12th World Series Championship. Schildt's interim tag is dropped shortly thereafter.

5. Chouteau Greenway moves forward, and in a huge surprise Chouteau Lake returns to the plans.

6. Momentum builds on multiple fronts for a city-county merger. State legislation becomes the leading and most likely method.

7. The Loop Trolley does little to advance public transit but is an overwhelming success as a tourist attraction and stabilizes and creates more development along it's route. Plans for an extension eastward are discussed.

8. For the first time in decades (ever?) St. Louis hires a police chief from outside of the department and region. He has much to solve and overcome, but as a fresh face from a fresh background, he's given the benefit of the doubt by many, and healing and progress in the relationship between the police and the community begins.

9. The Bayer acquisition of Monsanto hurts St. Louis employees worse than anticipated. The AgTech presence remains extremely strong, but office jobs take a sizable hit as redundancies are found by Bayer.

10. We see another large St. Louis company acquired by out of market interests, but also attract a major company (other than Amazon) to the city from outside the region and see a major local company move their headquarters downtown from the county.

11. MLS2STL reemerges. MLS still has 2 teams up for grabs, and they want to be in St. Louis. A feasible plan is finally worked out, though the stadium no longer on to the Union Station site.

[rheights]

4. After another sluggish start, the Cardinals front office is forced to admit their long obvious mistake and fires Mike Matheny in June. Mike Schildt takes over on an interim basis, and the Cardinals never look back going on a great run culminating in their 11th World Series Championship. Schildt's interim tag is dropped shortly thereafter.

12th

[jstriebel]

4. After another sluggish start, the Cardinals front office is forced to admit their long obvious mistake and fires Mike Matheny in June. Mike Schildt takes over on an interim basis, and the Cardinals never look back going on a great run culminating in their 11th World Series Championship. Schildt's interim tag is dropped shortly thereafter.

12th

Ah yes. I originally meant 12th, but accidentally typed 1wth. And then mistakenly edited it to 11th lol.

[jstriebel]

8. For the first time in decades (ever?) St. Louis hires a police chief from outside of the department and region. He has much to solve and overcome, but as a fresh face from a fresh background, he's given the benefit of the doubt by many, and healing and progress in the relationship between the police and the community begins.

That was quickly proven wrong.

[dredger]

2018 Predictions

2. St. Louis-Lambert International Airport will not go through with a lease to a private entity.
3. Direct flights to Germany are likely with the Bayer-Monsanto merger.
4. More flights will go into Concourse D.

14. More barge traffic will include standard cargo containers, offloaded at America’s Central Port in Granite City.
15. The STL Regional Freightway gets their funding for fully redoing the Merchants Bridge.
16. High speed rail between Chicago and STL will open and be reasonably successful for passengers, and more successful for cargo.
17. The Loop Trolley opens, finally, and is minimally successful.
18. There will be some progress towards Hyperloop between STL and KC, but not a groundbreaking.

Dark Horse: Blues get to the Finals.

Believe this is a pretty good assessment of regional infrastructure. Believe St. Louis Freightway will benefit from any POTUS/GOP infrastructure plan that might come together as it will be heavy on match funding & will not include money for big time expenditures whether it be lock & dam replacements or Chicago CREATE investment. Instead some decent piecemeal grants that will include St Louis for Merchant Rail bridge and continued grants for area river ports with lock free access to the gulf. Railroads will see that as well and move Merchant bridge up on their capital funding priority list as they grab some more grain business away from barges in upper Midwest.

Lambert privatization will be deflated when everyone realizes that their is no pot of gold at the end of the Lambert Privatization Rainbow. Only some lukewarm proposals

What I would add within the city

- Forest Parkway and Grand Ave at grade intersection breaks ground when SLU announces it will put money behind it, Foundry and Armory developments pick up steam.
- 22nd street parkway demo/new interchange still a couple years away as city has no money, state has no money and will take a year to two for Fed Funds from NGA construction to bleed into some surrounding area in the name of access and security.
- almost forgot to add, Forest Park Forever/St Louis Zoo will float loop trolley extension through Forest Park to Zoo parking lot once everything is up and running. They will stop short of proposing it crosses I64 to old FP hospital site development because of cost.

[dbInSouthCity]

^money is in place for Jefferson/22nd. $50m project. MoDOT will put in 30ish and city cut will come from EWG STP program.