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Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Posted: Fri Dec 23, 2016 10:42 am
by warwickland
i'm not sure if this has been mentioned, but quite a lot of manufacturing has been removed from these small illinois cities for the sunbelt (automation), overseas, or just plain failure. i spend a decent amount of time in central illinois, was recently in kewanee, which was home to the kewanee boiler corporation, a major manufacturer that went out of business in 2002 and left a gaping wound in the city. central illinois is like one giant constellation of small worst case rustbelt cities. throw the metro east in there, too... save for the ability of residents to commute to jobs in missouri, things would be pretty dire over there. illinois has been absolutely hammered by globalization as badly as michigan (in some cases it looks worse), with the exception of the chicago loop/northside/affluent suburbs and buffered college towns/cities like bloomington-normal/champaign-urbana. decatur is a wreck, peoria is heading that way, springfield has the state presence at least.

Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Posted: Fri Dec 23, 2016 11:24 am
by shimmy
^Great point. Decatur, Rockford, Danville, Kankakee have been hit hard by de-industrialization. But even Sangamon County (Springfield) and McLean (Bloomington) are drastically slowing. In the previous two decades Sangamon was posting about 5% gains, and the 2015 estimate has it at 0.6%. McLean was posting double digit gains and the 2015 estimate has it around 2%.

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Re: RE: Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Posted: Fri Dec 23, 2016 1:43 pm
by shimmy
Wall Street Journal: http://www.wsj.com/articles/illinois-la ... 1482451561

The numbers are especially worrisome for the state’s tax base because the average person moving out of the state earns some $20,000 more than the average person moving in. According to IRS data for tax year 2014 (filed in 2015), the average income of the taxpayer leaving Illinois was $76,824 while the average income of the new arrival was $56,689.

That gap is widening and the differential can be traced to policy decisions as the state staggers under pension debt and an entrenched Democratic-public union machine in Springfield. In an effort to cover growing debt, in January 2011 state lawmakers raised the personal income tax rate to 5% from 3% and the corporate income tax to 9.5% from 7.3%.

According to an analysis of Census data by the Illinois Policy Institute, for the 16 years before the tax hike Illinois lost an average of some 66,800 people in net migration. The exodus accelerated to 73,500 from July 2011 to July 2012, 67,300 in 2012-2013, 95,000 in 2013-2014, 105,000 in 2014-2015 and 114,000 this year.


Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Posted: Sat Dec 24, 2016 7:33 am
by Ebsy
Illinois is likely going to lose a Congressional district after the next census, and considering the population loss downstate, it will almost certainly be a republican district that gets the ax come redistricting. Redistricting will likely end up solidifying Chicago's dominance of state politics.

Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Posted: Sat Dec 24, 2016 9:09 am
by shimmy
Yeah, there's still a couple Republicans in the Chicago suburbs that could be the victims. Downstate, they could try to merge the 12th (Metro East and Southwest IL) with the 13th (Central IL including Champaign) or the 13th with the 18th (Western IL including Peoria). The 12th used to be reliably blue when Costello was the rep, so I could see them shifting the district, giving Shimkus all of rural Southern Illinois, and combining East St. Louis, Granite City, and Champaign into one district.

But that's less of an issue in Illinois' dysfunction than state politics, which are already dominated by the Democrats past repair. I believe in the past election that in the majority of Democratic controlled house races the incumbent ran unopposed. And again, it's not the fault of generic Democrats, it's the fault of the Madigan puppets in Springfield who refuse to negotiate at all with Rauner, propose a budget $4 billion in the red while our universities teeter on the edge, and then vote to give themselves raises.

Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Posted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 8:25 am
by xing
I think when you start saying taxes is the issue, it seems to be partisan/political blame. Taxes are obviously higher in Chicagoland, where I've been living, and there has been a lot of growth in the Chicago area. What I've always felt is that the state needs more investment downstate, so they can attract more jobs,drive down crime (huge issue in Springfield, Rockford, Metro East, and even many smaller cities), and also addres issues like drug abuse, and the shuttering of factory jobs.

Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Posted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 8:54 am
by shimmy
Taxes are a major part of the issue. I feel like most people denying this are making it a partisan issue. Crime and drug abuse? What states don't have those problems? And yeah, Illinois lost a lot of factory jobs, but so did our neighbors and they are still gaining population.

Taxes, and the related political dysfunction, is a major issue in keeping and attracting people to Illinois. You can argue that because of the massive hole Illinois is in financially that it needs high taxes (something that even Rauner acknowledges as plausible). But to act like such a tax burden is inconsequential and that people don't care about having to pay thousands more than they would elsewhere, while getting less in return, is simply being blinded by one's own political ideology.

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Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Posted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 9:23 pm
by joelo
It doesn't seem to be a burden in the Chicago area is what xing is saying. Indiana's income tax is just barely under Illinois and Missouri is higher along with Wisconsin. Yes their taxes are higher in other parts but many of those don't seem to affect those living in Chicago. My brother's apartment cost more up there but he sold his car and basically it's even for him cost wise but making more living up there so it's a net gain for him.

I can see it other parts of the state being an issue because those taxes (such as gas, car registration etc) hurting them more then those living in a higher income area like Chicago. Pretty much why the bleeding of residents is everywhere but Chicago

Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2017 3:05 pm
by STLrainbow
^ Just looking at Indiana, my home state, and while it has grown overall a lot of the manufacturing centers have taken a hit since 2010... many of the counties with rust belt economy towns such as Kokomo, Marion, Anderson have seen population decline, while the Indy Metro has fueled the overall statewide growth. Anyway, the fiscal situation in Illinois is exacerbating the situation, but again I think it's greater exposure to rust belt economic legacy is perhaps the most important factor for not performing more like neighboring states like Indiana or Missouri.

Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Posted: Sat Jan 07, 2017 9:14 am
by STLrainbow
Maybe it deserves its own thread, but data suggests US population growth was the lowest since the Great Depression. Aging population and lower immigration are the two main reasons. But unlike Japan and Germany, we should have continued growth in the years ahead albeit at a smaller historical pace. The West is the fastest growing and the industrial states the lowest. So again in the context of population trends in the US, and perhaps western/industrialized nations, what's going on in Illinois isn't too surprising.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-aven ... continues/

Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Posted: Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:45 am
by framer
Yeah, shrinkage is a weird thing. What's happening in Japan right now is really crazy; 50 years from now it will be a shell of it's former self.

Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Posted: Tue Apr 11, 2017 12:42 pm
by STLEnginerd
Debated about which thread to post this in.

http://www.bnd.com/opinion/editorials/a ... 38044.html

I agree with the over arching premise of the article but...
Missouri-first thinking puts our military spy mapping facilities in a land-locked, polluted and blighted area with ISIS peeking in the windows rather than next to a secure, major military base with lots of land to grow.
...seriously. Firstly WTH does ISIS have to do with anything. Secondly land locked? If NGA needs more land I would wager they could buy some and North city isn't known for their precipitously rising in land values. Frankly if ESTL had proposed an East St. Louis location for NGA it might have actually been enough of a positive impact to that side that it would have been worth letting them go. NGA at ScottAFB does nothing for the city.

And frankly NGA was already located within the city limits so Metro East didn't ACTUALLY lose anything. Even if they did the BND probably shouldn't start throwing stones across the Mississippi if they want to promote "regionalism".

Also I am SURE the region would include metro East in the equation if they actually brought something to the table. They should look to their dysfunctional state government which even when it isn't a financial disaster is constantly pouring all their resources into Chicago at the expense of their other urban areas.

Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Posted: Tue Apr 11, 2017 2:58 pm
by aprice
Yes, the future of the Metro East will have a much heavier weight on the region than most people think or even will admit. However the future will be determined inside I-255 / I-270, not out in Belleville or Edwardsville. Downtown needs dense, walkable, economically diverse neighborhoods in every direction. The single best thing that can be done for downtown (besides two way streets) is to invest in Downtown East St. Louis and to plan and invest in the North Side.

As for the NGA, get over it. I was pretty neutral during that whole fight until BND started these petty attacks against the city and its residents. Both locations sucked for different reasons, St. Clair County's was just worse.

Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Posted: Fri Jun 30, 2017 2:59 pm
by dredger
So how does Illinois budget impasse impact Metro East/St. Louis area? The latest PD article noted that Illinois is the only state to lose population in last three years. On top of it, Metro East just can't compete with the scale or scope of Chicago in attracting companies, investment.

http://www.stltoday.com/business/column ... b0841.html

Sauget recently met with site selection consultants in Atlanta, and thought she had a good story to tell about Metro East as a location for manufacturing and distribution companies. Inevitably, the consultants asked about the budget talks in Springfield.

“That’s a tough question to answer,” Sauget said.

Laurence Msall, president of the Civic Federation in Chicago, also says the indecision is causing damage. “It’s a huge impact on the economic strength of the state,” he said. “Businesses are moving or making alternative decisions rather than investing in Illinois.”

Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Posted: Mon Jul 03, 2017 8:32 pm
by shimmy
Even though it's Illinois' budget, I think it's a problem for the city. The Metro East was never competing with Chicago for businesses, but with the Missouri side. In other words, any company that the Metro East attracts is coming to St. Louis, and the Metro East's pitch is that the ME is better than the county because of cost of living, easy access downtown, etc. However, the economic situation in Illinois destroys the argument. So any company wanting to locate to suburban St. Louis is going to locate to the county, which further moves the center of the region west.

Same for individuals as well. I'm considering moving back to the area with my family in a few years and last night I was talking to my brother and his girlfriend who just bought a house in the Metro East last year. Mind you, by far the biggest reason for me wanting to move back to the Metro East is because that's where my family has lived for six generations. Loyalty is important to me, and to my brother. But his advice? "If you move back, move to Missouri."

Now will the city gain some from this? Perhaps a little. Maybe a business or two will move from the ME to the city, or a few individuals from Belleville to Soulard. But overall, the trend is going to be from suburb to suburb. Meaning from Edwardsville to Chesterfield. And as the Metro East's population continues to decline (I really only consider St. Clair and Madison counties as the Metro East), you're going to see the center of the region move farther west. The best thing that could happen for downtown St. Louis is for the Metro East to grow.






Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Posted: Tue Jul 04, 2017 3:20 pm
by wabash
I was thinking the tax increases the Illinois legislature is pushing through could help attract residents to the MO side, but they actually aren't totally punitive compared to MO. If I understand it correctly, the Illinois personal income tax will go up to 4.95%. Missouri's is 6% (for income above $9,000). The Illinois corporate income tax will go up to 7%. Missouri's is 6.25%.

So it seems that in neither instance will there be a huge imbalance that will bring a flood of residents or businesses. Obviously there are other considerations related to choosing to live in or run a company in a state that is sort of functionally insolvent, doesn't pay its bills, has to cut funding for most/many services, still is borrowing massively to stay afloat, and may not meet many of its pension obligations.

Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Posted: Sat Aug 26, 2017 7:13 am
by shimmy
I was looking more in-depth at individual cities in the Metro East and the trend is certainly troubling. Of the Metro East's core cities, only Edwardsville and O'Fallon are estimated to have gained population from 2010 to 2016, but even with them the trend is concerning. Edwardsville is projected to have grown at about 3% where for the previous five decades it grew at at least 11%. Similar story in O'Fallon where for the past 50 years they've grown at at least 29% and now are projected to have gained about 3%.

This could be a factor of both starting to get built out compared to decades past, but even the "suburbs of these suburbs" have dramatically slowed population from double-digit growth to mostly flat (0.5% growth for the likes of Shiloh, Swansea, Glen Carbon). And, perhaps the best candidate for Metro East sprawl after the O'Fallon area (considering quick access to highways and MO, ample farmland, and decent schools) - Troy - has slowed to just 2% (for better or for worse).

Collinsville, Belleville, Alton, and Granite City are all projected to have lost 3 - 4%, whereas East St. Louis appears to have bottomed out a bit, losing 0.5%. Same trend with the remaining River Bottom communities, with Madison population loss slowing to just over 1% while Roxana and Wood River are projecting a loss of about 4%.

Even the bright star of the Metro East recently, Columbia (booming population, great schools, powerhouse sports programs, quick access to JB Bridge) has seen its population growth slow from 20+% to 5% while neighboring Millstadt has gone from 43% growth from 2000-2010 (pop going from roughly 2700 to 4100) to a projected 3% loss in 2016.

Going even further, the theory that the Metro East is emptying out to even farther out suburbs doesn't seem to hold up. I've always disputed this a bit, as there are parts of Madison and St. Clair counties that I wouldn't consider suburbs (Red Bud, Alhambra, Marissa, etc.), let alone Clinton and Jersey counties. But Jersey, Macoupin, Bond, and Clinton counties are all projected at losses of 5%, 3%, 4%, and 0.5%, respectively.

On the bright side, it makes for a great home buyer's market!

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