Illinois continues to bleed residents

Discuss new retail, dining, business and residential projects in Southwestern Illinois, including East St. Louis, Belleville, O'Fallon and Edwardsville.
Illinois posts a net loss of 37,500 as 114,000+ move out.


http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/loca ... story.html
Illinois has a real issue. They are fiscally insolvent and the governor is in a feud with the speaker of the house.

Basically, the governor is trying to deal with budget issues that have been kicked down the road for decades. They have very generous public pension plans, that allow employees to retire at 55 and the state has horribly underfunded these pensions programs. Well, now the piper wants to be paid and it is going to take some painful action.

Who would want to live in this state? Considering all the political feuding not to mention having a record number of governors being convicted felons. I think it will get worse for the Land of Lincoln before it gets better.
Yup. As someone born and raised in the Metro East with dreams of someday returning, even I'm reluctant to come home. Really, Dwight Kay losing his seat was a huge blow to any confidence I had in things getting better.
It isn't just fleeing to MO, either.

I lived in Indianapolis for awhile. Met many IL 'escapees' as folks were tired of higher taxes, budget woes, etc.

100% agree it is going to get much, much worse before it gets better.
"Yup. As someone born and raised in the Metro East with dreams of someday returning" - same here shimmy
Know where the outflow is going to? Is MO picking up a fair amount?
STLrainbow wrote:
Know where the outflow is going to?


In short, everywhere. Bordering states and warm weather states tend to pick up most Illinoisans.
Illinois is losing mostly old people as they head to Florida.
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From the US Census, 2010 to 2015 population change. They will release the county estimates for 2016 sometimes in 2017.

If the people quitting Illinois are from Chicago or its suburbs, immigration or natural births are apparently still driving growth. However, the rural communities and small towns/cities as well as the St. Louis suburbs appear to be bleeding residents quite profusely. The worst of the population loss appears to be along the Illinois river. I'm not sure pinning the blame on taxes or liberals or whatever is really going diagnosing the problem correctly.
Ebsy wrote:
If the people quitting Illinois are from Chicago or its suburbs, immigration or natural births are apparently still driving growth. However, the rural communities and small towns/cities as well as the St. Louis suburbs appear to be bleeding residents quite profusely. The worst of the population loss appears to be along the Illinois river. I'm not sure pinning the blame on taxes or liberals or whatever is really going diagnosing the problem correctly.


It's a large, large part of the problem, though. Taxes are a major driving issue, as evidenced by looking at other high-tax states like Connecticut and seeing that it is tied with Illinois for percentage of residents who want to leave (7 of the top 10 are high-tax states - http://www.gallup.com/poll/168770/half- ... where.aspx).

And while I don't know if you can pin the problem solely on liberals in a general sense, pinning it on the current Madigan-led cronies in Springfield and Chicago is a pretty apt diagnosis. Illinois' neighbors are actively and openly recruiting Illinois businesses because of Illinois' toxic business environment (though Indiana seems to be doing a much better job than Missouri). Governor Rauner is desperately trying to change that business climate and pass some pro-business policies in the state, and has even said he's open to compromise and discussing revenue increases with the Democrats. But not only has Madigan refused to compromise with Rauner, he refuses to even meet with him!
shimmy wrote:
Ebsy wrote:
If the people quitting Illinois are from Chicago or its suburbs, immigration or natural births are apparently still driving growth. However, the rural communities and small towns/cities as well as the St. Louis suburbs appear to be bleeding residents quite profusely. The worst of the population loss appears to be along the Illinois river. I'm not sure pinning the blame on taxes or liberals or whatever is really going diagnosing the problem correctly.


It's a large, large part of the problem, though. Taxes are a major driving issue, as evidenced by looking at other high-tax states like Connecticut and seeing that it is tied with Illinois for percentage of residents who want to leave (7 of the top 10 are high-tax states - http://www.gallup.com/poll/168770/half- ... where.aspx).



You could also look at the above link and surmise that people want to live near mountains. Or states with names that begin with letters in the middle of the alphabet tend to want to move more than others. There are several ways to correlate the two lists, doesn't necessarily mean its causal. Further down in the link, it actually provides a detailed view of reasons why respondents plan on moving in the next 12 months - taxes was the least actively cited. Much more important were work/jobs and family/friends. Or, if you'd prefer to stay in your own narrative, TAXES!!! (There might be a link between business taxes and work/jobs - but the data above doesn't provide)
I wonder if Missouri has done any work (specifically aimed at Illinois) to attract companies to St. Louis. I'd love to see a few Chicago companies migrate south.


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addxb2 wrote:
I wonder if Missouri has done any work (specifically aimed at Illinois) to attract companies to St. Louis. I'd love to see a few Chicago companies migrate south.


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I recently saw a billboard on I-88 or I-290 somewhere in between Downers Grove and DT Chicago with a gist of "Hey Illinoisan! Your taxes would be xxx% cheaper if you lived in Indiana!" (Obviously didn't make a huge impression on me, as I can't remember exactly where it was or what the % number was, but I don't live in Illinois, so I don't care)

Maybe something like that on 270 and 255 would be effective for Missouri.
ricke002 wrote:
You could also look at the above link and surmise that people want to live near mountains. Or states with names that begin with letters in the middle of the alphabet tend to want to move more than others. There are several ways to correlate the two lists, doesn't necessarily mean its causal. Further down in the link, it actually provides a detailed view of reasons why respondents plan on moving in the next 12 months - taxes was the least actively cited. Much more important were work/jobs and family/friends. Or, if you'd prefer to stay in your own narrative, TAXES!!! (There might be a link between business taxes and work/jobs - but the data above doesn't provide)



There's actually an article in the Chicago Tribune today that addresses the link between taxes, jobs, and family and how they're all tied together. To summarize, it goes like this: Toxic business climate chases the jobs away -> kids therefore find jobs out-of-state -> parents say, "Why the hell are we staying here when our kids are no longer here, paying these ridiculous taxes?" and then move to greener pastures (both literally and financially).

So yes, I'll stay to the taxes narrative.
I remember seeing that the St. Louis metro area population growth is significantly impacted by this issue. Though for those leaving the metro east, are they staying in the metro area or are people in that part of the metro area more apt to leave the area entirely?
Ebsy wrote:
Image

From the US Census, 2010 to 2015 population change. They will release the county estimates for 2016 sometimes in 2017.


Don't know if you can do one of those for Missouri but I bet it wouldn't look a whole lot different... i.e. a lot of negative in the rural areas and growth limited to a relatively few counties overall.
To be honest the map labeling is terrible in it for not having enough difference in colors along with not using 0 as point in this. If not mistaken for Missouri the trend has been similar, though there are some rural areas growing. The losses are largely in the northern half of the state and the bootheel if not mistaken.
^ definitely should be set to zero. for missouri, my recollection is pretty consistent losses in the northern counties and more mixed in the southern part of the state, with some pretty decent growth around Springfield-Branson area but also some in SW MO seeing slippage.
Missouri gained a little over 16,000 residents while it lost a little over 6,000 however none of this matters cause no state in the Midwest has an answer for the South let alone Texas. Texas is pretty much its own country the state alone gained over 450,000 residents this year.. If the exodus of the Midwest continues within the next 35-65 years then maybe it be time to consider merging of states and to me anything is possible ... Its virtually the Midwest against Texas
I recently talked to a young lady who just moved here to St.Louis over a month ago from Chicago and also talked to a man who was here on a interview for the SLU med he was from the Boston area and i wished him much luck...
imperialmog wrote:
To be honest the map labeling is terrible in it for not having enough difference in colors along with not using 0 as point in this. If not mistaken for Missouri the trend has been similar, though there are some rural areas growing. The losses are largely in the northern half of the state and the bootheel if not mistaken.

I just did a screen grab of the map from the census quickfacts site.
Image

I whipped up a better map, with both the Missouri and Illinois data. % Change is from the 2010 Census to the July 2015 Estimates. Click here to see the full map.

The biggest gainers in terms of % are Platt and Clay (KC suburbs/exurbs) and Christian County (south of Springfield) in Missouri and Kendall County (very edge of the Chicago Metro). Biggest loser by far is Alexander county in Southern Illinois (Cairo), and the worst in Missouri is the two counties up near the Missouri/Kansas/Nebraska border.
Interesting to note that only two true rural counties in Illinois gained population - Effingham and Moultrie (a case could also be made for Johnson considering how small the Carbondale-Marion MSA is). Some urban/suburban counties gained outside Chicago - Sangamon, Champaign, Bloomington . But it's not a complete trend as Quad Cities, Peoria, Rockford, Decatur, and the Metro East all lost population.

That's a great map, Ebsy. Thank you.
^the delta interesting seeing in-around I-70 has a nearly unbroken chain of population gain.
the noticeable difference between the Missouri Suburban counties and the Metro East counties in the metro is rather stark, and is likely a factor in westward sprawl since it further pushes center of population west. Since wouldn't a stronger metro east be a positive for the city of St. Louis? One reason I wonder for the weakness, is that it feels like the Metro East communities have a much stronger rust belt feel and legacy than most of the Missouri side of the river in terms of suburban communities which is likely a function of the flatter land and coal mining areas not far from the metro east.
thanks for the map, ebsy...

as far as rural Missouri, obviously the Springfield/Branson corridor is doing pretty well and I believe a lot of retirees going down to Taney County (Branson) but it is nice to see that some of the counties with cities like Joplin and Cape G. still have at least some growth.. I wonder if there is a bit of the same effect that we see here in the St. Louis metro of young adults coming in from the rural areas but are going to these smaller towns instead of big bad St. Lou.