Illinois continues to bleed residents

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warwickland
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Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Unread post by warwickland » Fri Dec 23, 2016 10:42 am

i'm not sure if this has been mentioned, but quite a lot of manufacturing has been removed from these small illinois cities for the sunbelt (automation), overseas, or just plain failure. i spend a decent amount of time in central illinois, was recently in kewanee, which was home to the kewanee boiler corporation, a major manufacturer that went out of business in 2002 and left a gaping wound in the city. central illinois is like one giant constellation of small worst case rustbelt cities. throw the metro east in there, too... save for the ability of residents to commute to jobs in missouri, things would be pretty dire over there. illinois has been absolutely hammered by globalization as badly as michigan (in some cases it looks worse), with the exception of the chicago loop/northside/affluent suburbs and buffered college towns/cities like bloomington-normal/champaign-urbana. decatur is a wreck, peoria is heading that way, springfield has the state presence at least.
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Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Unread post by shimmy » Fri Dec 23, 2016 11:24 am

^Great point. Decatur, Rockford, Danville, Kankakee have been hit hard by de-industrialization. But even Sangamon County (Springfield) and McLean (Bloomington) are drastically slowing. In the previous two decades Sangamon was posting about 5% gains, and the 2015 estimate has it at 0.6%. McLean was posting double digit gains and the 2015 estimate has it around 2%.

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Re: RE: Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Unread post by shimmy » Fri Dec 23, 2016 1:43 pm

Wall Street Journal: http://www.wsj.com/articles/illinois-la ... 1482451561

The numbers are especially worrisome for the state’s tax base because the average person moving out of the state earns some $20,000 more than the average person moving in. According to IRS data for tax year 2014 (filed in 2015), the average income of the taxpayer leaving Illinois was $76,824 while the average income of the new arrival was $56,689.

That gap is widening and the differential can be traced to policy decisions as the state staggers under pension debt and an entrenched Democratic-public union machine in Springfield. In an effort to cover growing debt, in January 2011 state lawmakers raised the personal income tax rate to 5% from 3% and the corporate income tax to 9.5% from 7.3%.

According to an analysis of Census data by the Illinois Policy Institute, for the 16 years before the tax hike Illinois lost an average of some 66,800 people in net migration. The exodus accelerated to 73,500 from July 2011 to July 2012, 67,300 in 2012-2013, 95,000 in 2013-2014, 105,000 in 2014-2015 and 114,000 this year.

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Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Unread post by Ebsy » Sat Dec 24, 2016 7:33 am

Illinois is likely going to lose a Congressional district after the next census, and considering the population loss downstate, it will almost certainly be a republican district that gets the ax come redistricting. Redistricting will likely end up solidifying Chicago's dominance of state politics.

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Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Unread post by shimmy » Sat Dec 24, 2016 9:09 am

Yeah, there's still a couple Republicans in the Chicago suburbs that could be the victims. Downstate, they could try to merge the 12th (Metro East and Southwest IL) with the 13th (Central IL including Champaign) or the 13th with the 18th (Western IL including Peoria). The 12th used to be reliably blue when Costello was the rep, so I could see them shifting the district, giving Shimkus all of rural Southern Illinois, and combining East St. Louis, Granite City, and Champaign into one district.

But that's less of an issue in Illinois' dysfunction than state politics, which are already dominated by the Democrats past repair. I believe in the past election that in the majority of Democratic controlled house races the incumbent ran unopposed. And again, it's not the fault of generic Democrats, it's the fault of the Madigan puppets in Springfield who refuse to negotiate at all with Rauner, propose a budget $4 billion in the red while our universities teeter on the edge, and then vote to give themselves raises.
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Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Unread post by xing » Sat Dec 31, 2016 8:25 am

I think when you start saying taxes is the issue, it seems to be partisan/political blame. Taxes are obviously higher in Chicagoland, where I've been living, and there has been a lot of growth in the Chicago area. What I've always felt is that the state needs more investment downstate, so they can attract more jobs,drive down crime (huge issue in Springfield, Rockford, Metro East, and even many smaller cities), and also addres issues like drug abuse, and the shuttering of factory jobs.
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Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Unread post by shimmy » Sat Dec 31, 2016 8:54 am

Taxes are a major part of the issue. I feel like most people denying this are making it a partisan issue. Crime and drug abuse? What states don't have those problems? And yeah, Illinois lost a lot of factory jobs, but so did our neighbors and they are still gaining population.

Taxes, and the related political dysfunction, is a major issue in keeping and attracting people to Illinois. You can argue that because of the massive hole Illinois is in financially that it needs high taxes (something that even Rauner acknowledges as plausible). But to act like such a tax burden is inconsequential and that people don't care about having to pay thousands more than they would elsewhere, while getting less in return, is simply being blinded by one's own political ideology.

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Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Unread post by joelo » Sat Dec 31, 2016 9:23 pm

It doesn't seem to be a burden in the Chicago area is what xing is saying. Indiana's income tax is just barely under Illinois and Missouri is higher along with Wisconsin. Yes their taxes are higher in other parts but many of those don't seem to affect those living in Chicago. My brother's apartment cost more up there but he sold his car and basically it's even for him cost wise but making more living up there so it's a net gain for him.

I can see it other parts of the state being an issue because those taxes (such as gas, car registration etc) hurting them more then those living in a higher income area like Chicago. Pretty much why the bleeding of residents is everywhere but Chicago

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Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Unread post by STLrainbow » Sun Jan 01, 2017 3:05 pm

^ Just looking at Indiana, my home state, and while it has grown overall a lot of the manufacturing centers have taken a hit since 2010... many of the counties with rust belt economy towns such as Kokomo, Marion, Anderson have seen population decline, while the Indy Metro has fueled the overall statewide growth. Anyway, the fiscal situation in Illinois is exacerbating the situation, but again I think it's greater exposure to rust belt economic legacy is perhaps the most important factor for not performing more like neighboring states like Indiana or Missouri.

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Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Unread post by STLrainbow » Sat Jan 07, 2017 9:14 am

Maybe it deserves its own thread, but data suggests US population growth was the lowest since the Great Depression. Aging population and lower immigration are the two main reasons. But unlike Japan and Germany, we should have continued growth in the years ahead albeit at a smaller historical pace. The West is the fastest growing and the industrial states the lowest. So again in the context of population trends in the US, and perhaps western/industrialized nations, what's going on in Illinois isn't too surprising.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-aven ... continues/

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Re: Illinois continues to bleed residents

Unread post by framer » Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:45 am

Yeah, shrinkage is a weird thing. What's happening in Japan right now is really crazy; 50 years from now it will be a shell of it's former self.


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