Amazon HQ2 in STL Effort

New and changing stores, restaurants, and businesses in the City of St. Louis
First unread post497 posts
^ not bad at all until Greitens' giant face and shrieking voice ruin everything.
BellaVilla wrote:
Thu Oct 26, 2017 11:37 am
Another possible asset for the region that I don't believe I have seen is the drone angle.

Amazon is very interested in pursuing drone tech, right? StL is still an aviation hub with Boeings operations, and correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't the NGS house much of the drone flying operations and talent for the US Military? Seems like a good fit to me in terms of talent on that side of things.
Good point.

I'm curious what kind of odds Vegas would put on this whole deal. Maybe they actually have.

Yup, they have, or rather, the Irish have.

http://fox2now.com/2017/10/24/wanna-bet ... mazon-hq2/
KerrytheKonstructor wrote:
Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:42 pm
Yup, they have, or rather, the Irish have.

http://fox2now.com/2017/10/24/wanna-bet ... mazon-hq2/
St. Louis isn't deserving of odds at all but Melbourne, Australia and Dublin, Ireland are? :roll: :lol:
whitherSTL wrote:
Thu Sep 07, 2017 2:53 pm
I'd like to see Gone Corporate weigh in here. He mentioned previously that Lambert was in the running for their logsitics HQ which eventually went to Cincy. Hopefully that effort created relationships with AMZN.
Sure thing…

Last March, Amazon chose Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport (CVG) as the hub for Amazon Prime Air, their new cargo airline meant to bring in-house the logistics operations that had previously been outsourced to FedEx and UPS. CVG is recognizing direct investment of $1.5BB with about 2,700 direct new hires. They will be starting off with a fleet of around 60 767-300s (starting with wet leases from two providers), each of which can fly about 85 tons of cargo for 13 hours. CVG already has a respectable amount of international cargo flights, and with it the established operational capacities/talent sets for handling this workload. It also has shuttered terminals ready to be converted and a ridiculous amount of proximate open land on which to build. AFAIK, incentives have not been made public.

St. Louis Lambert International Airport was very, very close to securing the hub for Amazon Prime Air. When this was announced, I was livid, because I know STL did a lot to pitch Amazon. I think we were a final 3 pick. Meanwhile, I’m confident that Amazon was presented at this time with the capacities of STL for economic development opportunities. (Concurrently, there was some interesting M&A activity the next day that made me feel a lot better, got me to think Amazon was looking for something else, something particular to the Cincinnati area, but that’s for maybe another time…)

The STL pitch to Amazon Prime Air likely included reviewing in full the pitch to Boeing for the 777X assembly line. That offer included around $1.7BB+ in State economic development incentives as well as $1.8BB in additional incentives from STL County. This is an incredible amount of money to pitch for an assembly plant, let alone what could be pitched to secure the headquarters for the fastest growing tech company out there. And, the 777X incentives would have been very smart investments into the region’s economy that would’ve more than paid for themselves. It also must be recognized that these were incentive programs wherein Boeing would’ve recognized these monies only upon completing certain thresholds for employment, buildout, etc.

The thing that I remember most about the 777X incentive package is that I’ve never seen the MO State Government come together across political lines so quickly or so seamlessly, and in the process they produced an incredibly competitive business proposal. Also, I’ve never seen Jeff City so ready to invest in and support STL.

It should be noted that STL did not get the 777X assembly only because of last-minute labor union concessions in Renton, WA that allowed them to retain the 777X there without having to relocate commercial jetliner assembly out of the Seattle area which would have been very expensive. (Also, they’d have had to figure out a way to bring the wings to Hazelwood from assembly in Japan without direct access to a seaport). Still, STL’s Boeing operations did secure significant component business for the 777X, which led to the construction of a $300MM, 424,000 sq.ft. composite facility in Hazelwood. Also, Boeing has since relocated a considerable amount of their IT workforce to STL from Seattle. The offers were strong enough to bring in business that we never would have had otherwise.

I’m sure they would’ve been pitched on NorthPark…

Closely related to cargo operations is the commercial passenger traffic at the airport today. STL definitely has excess capacity, meaning we have plenty of slots for more flights. As jstriebel mentioned before, we also have the infrastructure from when we were the national hub airport for TWA. Now, should the need arise for increased air traffic in and out of STL, such as Amazon wanting more direct flights in and out of here, then these flight needs can be met with birds being retasked or put on new routes. If given enough time to prep up facilities, i.e. taking the rest of the D Concourse (and the wide body/international wing of the C Concourse) out of mothball status, then STL can meet these demands, immediately and in full.

So yeah, very much, I believe Amazon has already had a great introduction to the economic development leadership of STL.


Meanwhile, it’s been a while since I’ve written here, but I had to check in today and review this thread. I’ve heard some very positive things from certain people I think are directly in the know on STL, and I stopped by to cross-reference what I’ve heard. Right now, I’d say STL is absolutely in the running for HQ2. A week ago, I thought we had a 20% chance to get Amazon in STL; not bad considering 238 sites have submitted proposals. Today, I think we may have an even better chance.
quincunx wrote:
Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:59 pm
Think MO's low support for its state universities will be a liability? We'd need a lot more college grads to feed Amazon.
There has been considerable interest in promoting Missouri University of Science & Technology – Rolla.
zink wrote:
Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:18 am
MoneyWatch doesnt even include St. Louis as a top contender simply because they dont have enough educated adults:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/amazons-hq ... ontenders/
Workforce is actually not a problem for STL. People will relocate for the opportunity to work for Amazon, especially recent college graduates. The question should really be with whom they directly compete for talent. And bouncing off Quincunx’s WSJ post, San Jose is absolutely not a viable city for Amazon for this exact reason. STL is positioned very competitively.
9ine Runner wrote:
Fri Sep 08, 2017 3:23 pm
Would choosing to relocate St. Louis (or the midwest) offer any strategic role in Amazon continuing to take the fight to Walmart, HQ'd in Bentonville, AR?
Yes. Consider that direct competition with the local national retailer is most likely why Minneapolis is only modestly pursuing HQ2: fear of hurting Target, their big local company, with too much proximate competition. Same time, Amazon’s big fight will actually be with Facebook, Alphabet, and Apple in the years ahead.
dylank wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 9:34 pm
Why the hell would the Post Dispatch publish this. "Amazon probably won't pick St. Louis..."
Maybe because the Post-Dispatch could be bought by Bezos, and the old guard at the Post-Dispatch cleared out?

Also: Something maybe, maybe happens before everything else, and maybe soon. Sorry for being so vague. Let’s just keep our eyes open.
Great post and info, thanks!
gone corporate wrote:
Wed Nov 01, 2017 5:30 pm

Also: Something maybe, maybe happens before everything else, and maybe soon. Sorry for being so vague. Let’s just keep our eyes open.
My eyes are open. Suddenly, Express Scripts being here is the ace in the hole. well, maybe a 10 in the hole.....Jack?

still, Express Scripts is very relevant to Amazon's future.
gone corporate wrote:
Wed Nov 01, 2017 5:30 pm

Also: Something maybe, maybe happens before everything else, and maybe soon. Sorry for being so vague. Let’s just keep our eyes open.
I am curious if this would be directly Amazon related or not.
gone corporate wrote:
Also: Something maybe, maybe happens before everything else, and maybe soon. Sorry for being so vague. Let’s just keep our eyes open.
By soon, you mean? Days, weeks, months, a year?

By maybe, you mean? 30%, 70%, 90%?

Thanks for all of the great info!



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
gone corporate wrote:
Wed Nov 01, 2017 5:30 pm
Also: Something maybe, maybe happens before everything else, and maybe soon. Sorry for being so vague. Let’s just keep our eyes open.
Gone Corporate, In all due respect I think you set the standard for the most vague non-descript tease to date on this blog.
Can I buy a vowel or two in an attempt to parse your hint?
dredger wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 12:41 am
gone corporate wrote:
Wed Nov 01, 2017 5:30 pm
Also: Something maybe, maybe happens before everything else, and maybe soon. Sorry for being so vague. Let’s just keep our eyes open.
Gone Corporate, In all due respect I think you set the standard for the most vague non-descript tease to date on this blog.
Yeah, I know. But, the last time I tried to confirm a rumor, just to see if it was viable, my post was tweeted by someone who reads this site. Then, that tweet was published by the Biz Journal. I posted it on a Friday afternoon; by Monday, that deal was shuttered, and it cost me. I just can't talk too openly about certain things that I anticipate, because there's people out there who'll nail me if I do. That's why I'm largely off this site, too many people read it. I can say that I'm not operating off of insider information; that what I anticipate hasn't closed yet; and that you've talked about it before, Dredger.
Dredger, I'm gonna need a rundown of everything you've ever talked about, pronto.
This is a link to a video that's probably the smartest review out there of Amazon, the Big Four technology companies, and how they'll play out in the years ahead. It was published by the L2 Digital Leadership Academy and is given by Dr. Scott Galloway, Professor of Marketing at NYU. It's the most insightful review of Amazon and its developing business strategies I've ever seen.

Heads-up: It's 48 minutes long. Watch if you eat lunch at your desk and have the time to give to it.

When thinking about HQ2, I've been stuck on the "why" for it being created. Why build a fully-equal, yet separate HQ? What is the strategic need that it serves, what hurdle it overcomes? The only thing I can think of is antitrust.

Amazon started off as just an online bookstore; it now is the largest retailer out there. It also is the largest provider of online hosting (AWS); makes movies and television; is leading in voice search (Alexa); and has its own logistics network (Prime Air). With Prime Day, they've changed the entire seasonal dynamics of retail shopping. (Meanwhile, Jeff Bezos also owns the Washington Post and has his own space program, Blue Origin.) They're getting into advertising, search, digital content, and private label retailing. And all the money they make, they just invest it into corporate expansion.

Pay attention to how they acquired Whole Foods. The day they announced the acquisition, the corresponding one-day increase in their stock price accounted for the company appreciating in value by an amount almost equal to the cost of the acquisition itself. Think about it. Amazon says, "We're buying Whole Foods". That day, Whole Foods' stock goes up in value $3.07BB, and Amazon's stock valuation increases that same time by $11.23BB, almost four times the amount of Whole Foods' appreciation and just less than the cost of the entire acquisition ($13.7BB). The markets liked Amazon's idea so much, that they almost paid for the entire buyout in one day of trading. At the same time, Walmart lost $11.03BB in stock valuation the same day.

From the presentation...
Percentage of US households in 2016 that:
- Own a gun: 44%.
- Own a landline telephone: 49%.
- Attend church monthly: 51%.
- Earn over $50K/year: 55%.
- Voted in the 2016 election: 55%.
- Have an Amazon Prime subscription: 58%.

The company is anticipated to be the first to generate $1TT in revenues in a single year, all while eating everyone else's lunch. This is where antitrust comes into play. Maybe they'll remain whole, or maybe they'll have to split into components. If so, then it's a good idea to have a separate HQ ready to roll. They have the cash to do it already, so might as well prep up.

Here’s one possibility I’ve also thrown out there. I’m still unclear what this would mean for STL. Id be real skeptical having our biggest company, a fortune 20 company, bought out.

Image
gone corporate wrote:[url=https://youtu.be/GWBjUsmO-Lw]This is a link to a video that's probably the smartest review out there

I’m 3/4 through this video. Very good stuff here. Thanks for posting!
gone corporate wrote:
Wed Nov 01, 2017 5:30 pm

Right now, I’d say STL is absolutely in the running for HQ2. A week ago, I thought we had a 20% chance to get Amazon in STL; not bad considering 238 sites have submitted proposals. Today, I think we may have an even better chance.
It all depends upon whether Amazon is seeking a lower cost, non-traditional choice.. I don't think they are and will be headed to a Boston or Chicago or Atlanta type of place. But if they are seeking to shake things up with their choice, places like Indy, Nashville, Detroit & Pittsburgh would be among alternatives that would have some similar pros and cons just like STL. But let's make those our Final Five to get our 20% chance... Amazon Madness!
gone corporate wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:28 am
dredger wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 12:41 am
gone corporate wrote:
Wed Nov 01, 2017 5:30 pm
Also: Something maybe, maybe happens before everything else, and maybe soon. Sorry for being so vague. Let’s just keep our eyes open.
Gone Corporate, In all due respect I think you set the standard for the most vague non-descript tease to date on this blog.
Yeah, I know. But, the last time I tried to confirm a rumor, just to see if it was viable, my post was tweeted by someone who reads this site. Then, that tweet was published by the Biz Journal. I posted it on a Friday afternoon; by Monday, that deal was shuttered, and it cost me. I just can't talk too openly about certain things that I anticipate, because there's people out there who'll nail me if I do. That's why I'm largely off this site, too many people read it. I can say that I'm not operating off of insider information; that what I anticipate hasn't closed yet; and that you've talked about it before, Dredger.
So given the current economic situation in St. Louis, do you think we have a bright future? Do you feel like Cortex is really going to make a difference 10-20 years from now? How about the movement of NGA to the Near Northside?
STLrainbow wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 1:07 pm
gone corporate wrote:
Wed Nov 01, 2017 5:30 pm

Right now, I’d say STL is absolutely in the running for HQ2. A week ago, I thought we had a 20% chance to get Amazon in STL; not bad considering 238 sites have submitted proposals. Today, I think we may have an even better chance.
It all depends upon whether Amazon is seeking a lower cost, non-traditional choice.. I don't think they are and will be headed to a Boston or Chicago or Atlanta type of place. But if they are seeking to shake things up with their choice, places like Indy, Nashville, Detroit & Pittsburgh would be among alternatives that would have some similar pros and cons just like STL. But let's make those our Final Five to get our 20% chance... Amazon Madness!
To me with all this hoopla and the circus of the proposals and race for HQ2, if they don't pick a non-traditional site I am gonna be pissed. I think a lot of other cities should be as well. If they go the safe route I think it will be bad PR and I at least hope people will be a little mad for making so many cities spend time on this when it will just look like a way to get a cheaper spot in Denver or Austin or another trendy booming city.
ImprovSTL wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:20 pm
STLrainbow wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 1:07 pm
gone corporate wrote:
Wed Nov 01, 2017 5:30 pm

Right now, I’d say STL is absolutely in the running for HQ2. A week ago, I thought we had a 20% chance to get Amazon in STL; not bad considering 238 sites have submitted proposals. Today, I think we may have an even better chance.
It all depends upon whether Amazon is seeking a lower cost, non-traditional choice.. I don't think they are and will be headed to a Boston or Chicago or Atlanta type of place. But if they are seeking to shake things up with their choice, places like Indy, Nashville, Detroit & Pittsburgh would be among alternatives that would have some similar pros and cons just like STL. But let's make those our Final Five to get our 20% chance... Amazon Madness!
To me with all this hoopla and the circus of the proposals and race for HQ2, if they don't pick a non-traditional site I am gonna be pissed. I think a lot of other cities should be as well. If they go the safe route I think it will be bad PR and I at least hope people will be a little mad for making so many cities spend time on this when it will just look like a way to get a cheaper spot in Denver or Austin or another trendy booming city.
Unfortunately, I think they will end up in a city that totally doesn't need them and make the cost of living there go through the roof. Pretty much any city on the East Coast (outside of Baltimore) would become unlivable (they are pretty much there already). This landing in Denver, Austin, Dallas, Charlotte, or Atlanta would make these cities even more of a traffic nightmare and cost of living would go through the roof. Nashville and Indianapolis don't really have the infrastructure to support that many jobs without some MAJOR growing pains and investment in highways and light rail transit. I think Pittsburgh, Detroit, and St. Louis are good fits, but talent attraction and retention would be an perceived issue.
Gone Corporate thanks for the insights. Sorry, I couldn't pass up a dig.
jstriebel wrote: Dredger, I'm gonna need a rundown of everything you've ever talked about, pronto.
I guess my list of speculative BS must be extensive by now.

Make my living trying to make money in moving dirt on the water but this is great blog to entertain my education as an civil engineer & construction manager, my curiosity in the built environment & my family history of architects and tying it in with my interest in the business/finance aspect of all it. Gone Corporates and the insights/discussion on this blog are fricking heads above watching some pundit on cable news network.
gone corporate wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 10:16 am
This is a link to a video that's probably the smartest review out there of Amazon, the Big Four technology companies, and how they'll play out in the years ahead. It was published by the L2 Digital Leadership Academy and is given by Dr. Scott Galloway, Professor of Marketing at NYU. It's the most insightful review of Amazon and its developing business strategies I've ever seen.

Heads-up: It's 48 minutes long. Watch if you eat lunch at your desk and have the time to give to it.

When thinking about HQ2, I've been stuck on the "why" for it being created. Why build a fully-equal, yet separate HQ? What is the strategic need that it serves, what hurdle it overcomes? The only thing I can think of is antitrust.

Amazon started off as just an online bookstore; it now is the largest retailer out there. It also is the largest provider of online hosting (AWS); makes movies and television; is leading in voice search (Alexa); and has its own logistics network (Prime Air). With Prime Day, they've changed the entire seasonal dynamics of retail shopping. (Meanwhile, Jeff Bezos also owns the Washington Post and has his own space program, Blue Origin.) They're getting into advertising, search, digital content, and private label retailing. And all the money they make, they just invest it into corporate expansion.

Pay attention to how they acquired Whole Foods. The day they announced the acquisition, the corresponding one-day increase in their stock price accounted for the company appreciating in value by an amount almost equal to the cost of the acquisition itself. Think about it. Amazon says, "We're buying Whole Foods". That day, Whole Foods' stock goes up in value $3.07BB, and Amazon's stock valuation increases that same time by $11.23BB, almost four times the amount of Whole Foods' appreciation and just less than the cost of the entire acquisition ($13.7BB). The markets liked Amazon's idea so much, that they almost paid for the entire buyout in one day of trading. At the same time, Walmart lost $11.03BB in stock valuation the same day.

From the presentation...
Percentage of US households in 2016 that:
- Own a gun: 44%.
- Own a landline telephone: 49%.
- Attend church monthly: 51%.
- Earn over $50K/year: 55%.
- Voted in the 2016 election: 55%.
- Have an Amazon Prime subscription: 58%.

The company is anticipated to be the first to generate $1TT in revenues in a single year, all while eating everyone else's lunch. This is where antitrust comes into play. Maybe they'll remain whole, or maybe they'll have to split into components. If so, then it's a good idea to have a separate HQ ready to roll. They have the cash to do it already, so might as well prep up.
Good post and I think you may be on to something here.

Appreciate your contributions, you obviously speak with quite a bit of knowledge on this topic.
This was mentioned in one of the general forum posts, but can we please stop quoting long posts in their entirety? Especially if we are just replying with a one or two sentence follow up? Thanks in advance!
St. Louis is not even near to being considered
http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go ... e_id=22711
hebeters2 wrote:
Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:22 am
St. Louis is not even near to being considered
http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go ... e_id=22711
I don't see Dallas or Philly on there either. I think this type of betting lists hold little weight.
hebeters2 wrote: St. Louis is not even near to being considered
http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go ... e_id=22711
I'd find the betting on this to be interesting. I feel like their is so little real knowledge being applied to the odds and is simply based on which cities are popular. Like how I would never bet FOR the Yankees because there are more Yankees fans out there than any other team but it has a weak correlation to how well they are playing baseball.

That said with so many contenders being left out and not to mention how unclear it is what consistutes a win, I don't think I've seen a betting site I could bet with yet. Like what happens when it's none of the above, does the house take it all? What happens if they pick Clayton MO, does that count as St. Louis? I almost wish I could put 20 bucks down on St. Louis, but given the size of the field and the relative outside the box choice it would be, I might need 500:1 odds on my money. Even Atlanta, DC, and Chicago can only be viewed as 5:1 or so. The field is just SO big.

For those who don't know how this kind of betting works. The bookies have to manage the odds in such a way that the number of bets against cover the winning bets no matter what. Theoretically they make a decent percentage but aren't supposed to be taking the bulk of the winnings. But for a horse race one of the horses in the starting gate is going to win the race. This is a bit murkier and therefore to my mind a suckers bet.