2020 Census

A catch-all forum for urban discussion. If it doesn't fit elsewhere, post here.
First unread post537 posts
Fun times in the County.... last year Chesterfield lost population and Maplewood gained population!

Adding: Other losers in the edges of the County include Valley Park, Wildwood, Manchester, Ballwin, Maryland Heights and Bridgeton. Closer in, Brentwood, Crestwood. Sunset Hills, Richmond Heights, Webster Groves and University City saw declines.

Gainers besides Maplewood include Creve Couer, Clayton and Kirkwood. But there were far more decliners than adders in the County.

And fwiw, St. Peters out in St. Chuck's Co also saw an estimated drop altho of course the County as a whole gained (albeit at a smaller pace than last decade.)
dbInSouthCity wrote:
Thu May 31, 2018 2:54 pm
I think 2020 Census numbers will be a surprise for St.Louis in a good way. There has been so much residential added in the last 3-4 years that its hard to square away with the July 1 2017 update.
The estimates definitely need to be seen as just that and I wouldn't be surprised at all by much better performance in the 2020 count than what the estimates say now. But as equally important as how many people we may be gaining in the hotter n'hoods is how many people we may be losing elsewhere. I think it's safe to say North of Delmar continues to drop, but what about places in South City like Bevo and Dutchtown that have high density? I think those kind of places where there could be substantial loss that isn't really that visible -- kind of like TGS, etc. last decade -- are sort of the unknown factors that will determine our 2020 fate.
I think the numbers on the Northside are going to be worse than most of us here might expect.
^ North lost 16% last decade; 2010 population was almost right at 100,000 so if it repeats that drop for this decade it would be a loss of around 16,000 people and a 2020 population of about 84.000.

If that happens, I think the Central Corridor would surpass North Corridor in population sometime in the 2020's absent significant change in direction. (My bet is Central population will be around 75,000 give or take a couple thousand in 2020; a gain of 15K or so.)
TBH - They are more and more surprising to me every year they come out. I keep expecting them to find the bottom, and they keep going down and down...
Census estimates for racial composition/Hispanic Origin were released recently.... the city's population decline since 2010 has been entirely from the continuing decline in black population. White and other races have grown. (Steady for whites when excluding Hispanics and Latinos.) Meanwhile, County decline stems from a loss in whites.

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tab ... l?src=bkmk
This might be listed somewhere else but on TRex's report, they list the downtown population to now be 19,525 in 2018. An increase of 43% from 2010 they say. Not sure if this was their data or census data.

They are counting downtown, downtown west and midtown as "downtown" it would seem.

http://report.downtowntrex.org/
^ I suspect that's an estimate coming from Downtown STL.... and that's probably for the 'Greater Downtown" area that includes parts of surrounding n'hoods like Laf. sq., Columbus Sq. and a small slice of Midtown to account for Wells Fargo employment.

Kinda surprised the estimate for the 'Downtown Core" hasn't yet surpassed 10,000 if that's taking in downtown + downtown west.
^ I looked at the Downtown STL Inc. website and it does appear their boundary for "Greater Downtown" extends up to Cass and includes both Columbus and Carr Square. It does not include anything south of Chouteau, so Lafayette Square, Lasalle Park and others aren't likely included in that number. It also does extend slightly west to take Wells Fargo in, but I'm not sure how that would goose the residential population numbers all that much. I very highly doubt a majority of their 5,000 or so employees Downtown actually live Downtown.
^ they may have redrawn boundaries but I'm pretty sure they included South to Park Ave at one time. As for Midtown, not sure if it captures that Senior tower just north of W-FA but yeah, only a tiny percentage of the pop at best would come from Midtown.... but for employment it would be a meaningful amount.
Downtown Core (downtown+west) is at 10,700 or so by latest numbers ive seen...the 19,250 is River, Cass, jefferson, Chouteau

Image
^ I don't see how the numbers add up without including South of Chouteau to Park like in the past. 2010 population for Columbus Square and Carr Square was just 4,600 combined and I doubt they grew much since.