2020 Census

A catch-all forum for urban discussion. If it doesn't fit elsewhere, post here.
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county population estimates (including independent cities like STL & Baltimore) will be released to the public tomorrow... always a fun time!.
Ugly ugly ugly. City lost 4500 according to the stl today piece. But not sure if that’s correct. Piece says it’s 308,600 now but last update we were at 311,400, so a difference of 2800
dbInSouthCity wrote:
Wed Mar 21, 2018 11:37 pm
Ugly ugly ugly. City lost 4500 according to the stl today piece. But not sure if that’s correct. Piece says it’s 308,600 now but last update we were at 311,400, so a difference of 2800
Yes, you appear to be right. Not sure why the Post-Dipatch is using incorrect figures.
STL metro now 21st in nation. Swapped places with Baltimore. Typical “no need to panic” response. Seems like panic will only occur when STL metro drops below 1.2 million.
On census.gov St. Louis is #4 on the table of 'Top 10 Counties With Numeric Decrease: 2016-2017':

Code: Select all

Top 10 Counties With Numeric Decrease: 2016-2017

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|2017 | 2016 |          County            | 2017       | 2016       | Numeric | Percent |
|Rank | Rank |                            | Population | Population | Change  | Change  |
|-----|------|----------------------------|------------|------------|---------|---------|
|  1  |   1  | Cook County, IL            | 5,211,263  | 5,231,356  | -20,093 | -0.4    |
|  2  |   2  | Baltimore city, MD         |   611,648  |   616,958  |  -5,310 | -0.9    |
|  3  |   5  | Cuyahoga County, OH        | 1,248,514  | 1,253,454  |  -4,940 | -0.4    |
|  4  |   7  | St. Louis city, MO         |   308,626  |   313,144  |  -4,518 | -1.4    |
|  5  |  10  | Allegheny County, PA       | 1,223,048  | 1,227,553  |  -4,505 | -0.4    |
|  6  |  71  | Honolulu County, HI        |   988,650  |   992,761  |  -4,111 | -0.4    |
|  7  |   6  | Milwaukee County, WI       |   952,085  |   955,369  |  -3,284 | -0.3    |
|  8  | 124  | Anchorage Municipality, AK |   294,356  |   297,376  |  -3,020 | -1.0    |
|  9  |   3  | Wayne County, MI           | 1,753,616  | 1,756,598  |  -2,982 | -0.2    |
| 10  |  19  | Kanawha County, WV         |   183,293  |   186,097  |  -2,804 | -1.5    |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-RBB
Does anyone know how they go about these estimates? How accurate are they? I am not surprised the city is down but I am surprised as the article said it is the biggest decline since 2010.
I don't know if this is comforting or not, but Pittsburgh keeps bleeding population as its economy booms and the city is the most prosperous it has been (its GDP per capita surpassed that of the US for the first time in history in 2015).

The aggregate numbers do not look good, but I am under the impression that there are a lot of composition changes going on : poorer and less educated people moving out, more educated people moving in. This has been documented in Detroit, Pittsburgh and Cleveland (coincidentally, all of these cities make it to the list of top10 countries with largest numerical decrease). I wouldn't be surprised if it's the case in STL city as well.
Where are the actual numbers? Media outlets are only publishing changes
quincunx wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 9:01 am
Where are the actual numbers? Media outlets are only publishing changes

Interactive map on this site. about halfway down.
http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/in ... o-continue
I hate to say it, but I do think it’s time for City elected officials to hit the panic button. Dipping below 300k would be really bad. Our electeds need to figure out why people are leaving and what can be done to remedy the matter.
SouthCityJR wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 10:57 am
I hate to say it, but I do think it’s time for City elected officials to hit the panic button. Dipping below 300k would be really bad. Our electeds need to figure out why people are leaving and what can be done to remedy the matter.
Most likely population shifts will be in north city and not to mention homicides (1100+ homicides since 2010). North city is so neglected that the city leaders are surprised by these numbers means they clearly aren't paying attention


edit: I do wonder if the county and city leaders finally will see some sort of consolidation needs to happen sooner then later as they are both hurting now
So, they got the 4,500 number by revising our population last year upwards from the ACS estimate? What the hell? Does the Census Bureau have an axe to grind with us?

If they did not do that, we would not even be on the top 10 for population loss. This is a load of ****.
Taxes, crime, and schools.

And no, you should not expect any meaningful changes from the people running things. They have no incentive to change anything. They'll announce some crap initiative, and people will forget this. They'll announce Yet Another Sales Tax Increase, and y'all will vote for it due to some sh*tty rationalized reasons. The crime will get better, but that won't be due to any actual improvement, but due to literally nobody being left to commit any crime in North City.

Immigrants aren't going to help you, jacking the sales tax up to infinity isn't going to help. Wiping the city government clean, with a new structure and 100% new personnel, and a functional school system are what is going to help. You need to make it easy and cheap to open a business in the city (taxes and crime). You need to make it attractive for families to live here, and STAY here (crime and schools).

The past couple decades have been all about trying to drag in immigrants and childless hipsters/yuppies/high earners who can pay those taxes. Hasn't reversed the decline. Maybe it's time to humble up, admit that strategy was wrong (or at least, very suboptimal), and change the approach to what has worked in the past.
Tough to overcome hte forces spreading out the region.
Imagine if the wealth applied to running so many towns, building lots of new infrastructure to spread us out, taxes diverted in the TIF fueled sales tax chase, the money spent on fuel and cars to support longer commutes had gone into the causes of crime, schools, people's pockets?

St Louis County has grown 0.1% annually in population since 1970. All the resources it took to spread it out in that time have had little ROI.
I agree with what's been said, however I don't trust any estimate.

Last decade they exaggerated growth in the city and that was wayyy wrong.
Ebsy wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:29 pm
So, they got the 4,500 number by revising our population last year upwards from the ACS estimate? What the hell? Does the Census Bureau have an axe to grind with us?

If they did not do that, we would not even be on the top 10 for population loss. This is a load of ****.
This seems to be legitimately questionable. The Census Bureau's Quick Facts page for St. Louis City still lists the old number for 2016:
Population estimates, July 1, 2017, (V2017) 308,626
Population estimates, July 1, 2016, (V2016) 311,404
^ That's a difference of 2,778 people, which would put St. Louis below Kanawha County, WV. That would put St. Louis City either 10th or 11th, depending on who's currently in the 11th spot on their list. That's also assuming they didn't upwardly revise any of the other numbers, which I haven't verified.

Will have to see if I can dig up why they changed the 2016 numbers exactly. Is STL City still disputing the estimated numbers, or did they do away with that after the 2010 census?

-RBB
The 313,000 number comes from a different census set...

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tab ... RES&src=pt

dylank wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:08 pm
I agree with what's been said, however I don't trust any estimate.

Last decade they exaggerated growth in the city and that was wayyy wrong.
It was way wrong because the Census agreed to revise annual estimates upwards after getting complaints from the City about how we were undercounted. So basically they essentially were right before they were wrong. We've given up challenges after the actual Census indeed showed loss.
quincunx wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 1:19 pm
Tough to overcome hte forces spreading out the region.
Imagine if the wealth applied to running so many towns, building lots of new infrastructure to spread us out, taxes diverted in the TIF fueled sales tax chase, the money spent on fuel and cars to support longer commutes had gone into the causes of crime, schools, people's pockets?

St Louis County has grown 0.1% annually in population since 1970. All the resources it took to spread it out in that time have had little ROI.
I agree but to be fair most of our peers that are growing more rapidly like Indy are largely doing so via sprawl and devouring greenfields.... having a state capitol and/or major state research university along with a lesser exposure to a rust belt past also helps. Yet Indy/Marion County sill is struggling with high crime, high poverty and crappy streets/highways. And IPS is worse than SLPS.

We're simply in a difficult situation with regards to how to grow population, especially with immigration possibly being stunted nationally with new administration policies. How to pursue more urban-oriented policies like the Twin Cities while not having quite their same macro-drivers as the state capital and massive state U is our challenge.
Anyone have a guess as to how much population was lost in Northside? Has to be massive.
^ I think its safe to assume the bulk of the loss is coming from North. I recall some numbers pulled from some ACS data from a few years ago that suggested that as well. I think a relatively accurate snapshot of the city is that it is gaining in Central Corridor, relatively holding its own in South and continuing to decline in North with some variations w/in corridor n'hoods. More adults and fewer children. More educated and immigrants.. More concentrated poverty. More concentrated wealth.

Edit... just adding that the last two estimate years (2016 & 2017) is where things have started to get concerning with overall pop. loss... the earlier part of the decade pretty much showed things relatively static/slight annual loss. I assume that the same general pattern is in play with what was in that circa 2014 ACS neighborhood data, but it would be good to see more recent data now that loss seems to have accelerated.
I don't see why this is surprising? North St.Louis is an utter ghetto cesspool :roll: . Frankly it seems like the entire region is controlled by this urban monstrosity plagued by 1-2 murders per day with almost no end in sight. Call it what you want but you can't put lip stick on a pig and call it pretty.. Believe it or not that area effects each and everyone of us thats making good while these imbeciles make no effort what so ever.
The city will sink well below 300,000
Pittsburgh Metro has lost 22,924 from 2010-2017 & this is a region in contention for the Amazons 2nd HQ.. Not sure what they need to do to grow..

Some reason i still feel optimistic
I am confident the population loss maps that will come out in 2020 will mirror the homocide maps we currently see.

Losses wil be most heavily concentrated in North City.

Gentrification in the CWE is finally going to push population totals upward as opposed to downward like they have been.

Gentrification and all the transitioning of 4 family units to 2 family and 2 family units to single family units will probably hurt pop totals in places like Dogtown and many areas of South City.

South City and the central corridor seemed to have solidifed quite a bit this decade. Even rougher areas of the south side around G Park and Dutchtown still feel very stable. The bleeding in North City is what is going to drive the majority of the pop loss though
St.Louis1764 wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:20 pm
I don't see why this is surprising? North St.Louis is an utter ghetto cesspool :roll: . Frankly it seems like the entire region is controlled by this urban monstrosity plagued by 1-2 murders per day with almost no end in sight. Call it what you want but you can't put lip stick on a pig and call it pretty.. Believe it or not that area effects each and everyone of us thats making good while these imbeciles make no effort what so ever.
Hard not to feel personally attacked by this comment, and see an attack on my neighbors, many of which are out working on their neighborhoods on a daily basis. While there are a lot of people causing problems on the northside, there are just as many people doing good work. Get around North St. Louis a little more. There are a lot of good and stable areas, but those areas have to deal with the same perception issues as the worst areas.

Much of what plagues North St. Louis are structural and institutional issues that individuals and neighborhoods don't have control over. An area this large can't be revitalized without resources, and the system we as a nation have built does not provide resources anywhere close to the level needed. The private side and the public side have made choices for decades that have continued to compound the problems. While we have found crumbs here and there to make differences in some neighborhoods, many other neighborhoods have no chance. Nothing is going to change on a large scale until we have a community based plan with real teeth and resources start flowing on a large scale from all levels of government and private business. And we have to recognize that 70 years of decline is not going to turn around overnight. Complaining does nothing, action does.
^ nice post.