2020 Census

A catch-all forum for urban discussion. If it doesn't fit elsewhere, post here.
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whitherSTL wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 1:17 pm
Webster doing just fine....like $290/sq ft fine...
Increase in home prices/hot housing market in a suburb doesn't necessarily mean population growth. Due to declining household sizes, if a city isn't adding a good amount of housing units, it probably won't be growing, unless it is getting younger and attracting more young families. A population decrease doesn't necessarily mean an area is unhealthy or undesirable (although growth is obviously better).

Average household size continues to decline in the US. In 2016, it was estimated at 2.53, down from 3.3 in 1966 and 2.59 in 2000. Average household size in STL in 2000 (I'm not finding newer data) was 2.52, lower than the national average for metro areas of 2.61. In Wesbster Groves average household size was even lower at 2.39.

Looking at trends in median age since 2000, I think it is likely that household size in metro STL is dropping faster than the national average. Source: http://www.demographia.com/db-metroage.pdf

In 2013, average age in metro STL was 38.6 years, ranking 40th out of 52 largest metros. That was an increase of 2.5 years since 2000, greater than the national average increase of 2.3. So the St. Louis metro has an old population that is getting older, which means less kids and smaller household size.
^ I think that is a demographic problem that is particularly facing the Pittsburgh metro... more deaths than births iirc.

Back to STL, yeah, Webster and the like are kind of like the St. Louis Hills and Lindenwood Park neighborhoods... quite stable but you're going to have difficulty growing population there with constraints facing new housing supply. Meanwhile other parts of the County, particularly in NoCo, are facing some of the same problems that have plagued some of the city's deteriorating nabes. But again unlike the City, it just seems hard to see where growth will/can come in the County outside of the edges and Clayton without exploding past development patterns.
moorlander wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 1:46 pm
As boomers downsize or die off families will move in and populations will rise again.
This is the wild card for some county burbs -

anecdotal but -

A friend in Sunset hills has been on his street since 2003 - In that time the K-12 school buses went from picking 3 kids up in 03 to 14 kids today as many of the houses in his 40 year old subdivision turned over in the intervening years

Friends in Kirkwood off of Geyer - most of the street next to them has been torn down and rebuilt - 1,000 SF post war frames replaced with +2,000 SF 2 story craftsmen - more kids on that block now then ever since they have lived there
STLrainbow wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 12:56 pm
Will STL County lose population again this decade? Census estimate is yes so far but I'll say small increase for 2020 Census

Will any of the following inner-ring suburbs that lost population last decade and which the census estimates a loss since 2010 actually gain population this decade?

Shrewsbury
Maplewood
Richmond Hts
University City

I say no. What say you?
Richmond Heights has added some new housing since 2010 - they might see a bump

U-City has a added a little bit, but probably not enough to offset losses

Maplewood probably has not added any (someone please propose redevelopment of the Shop N Save, or the little strip mall to the east)

Shrewsbury probably has not added any significant new housing
Clayton should see a nice bump with all of the new construction there. Places like Chesterfield, Wildwood, and Eureka can only really go up. That being said, it will most likely be flat pop growth in the county.
whitherSTL wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 1:17 pm
Webster doing just fine....like $290/sq ft fine...
Its lost almost 25% of its population since 1970s basically anyone born/raised there since the 1980s never came back after college.
beer city wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:03 pm
Richmond Heights has added some new housing since 2010 - they might see a bump

U-City has a added a little bit, but probably not enough to offset losses

Maplewood probably has not added any (someone please propose redevelopment of the Shop N Save, or the little strip mall to the east)

Shrewsbury probably has not added any significant new housing
Sometimes its hard for me to remember if a certain development (or clearance) happened pre or post 2010, but do you recall when that Richmond Heights residential district was cleared out for the retail horror show where Menard's is?
Heres something off topic is the St.Louis region particularly the City doing anything to court hurricane victims in Puerto Rico to resettle here?
St.Louis will be a great location practically in the middle of the country lots of affordable housing to make roots here.
STLrainbow wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:01 am
beer city wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:03 pm
Richmond Heights has added some new housing since 2010 - they might see a bump

U-City has a added a little bit, but probably not enough to offset losses

Maplewood probably has not added any (someone please propose redevelopment of the Shop N Save, or the little strip mall to the east)

Shrewsbury probably has not added any significant new housing
Sometimes its hard for me to remember if a certain development (or clearance) happened pre or post 2010, but do you recall when that Richmond Heights residential district was cleared out for the retail horror show where Menard's is?
The demos started sometime after 2010, but I think that the buy outs were before that - there were houses that were vacant for years before being demoed
moorlander wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 1:46 pm
As boomers downsize or die off families will move in and populations will rise again.
That's exactly what's happening in my neighborhood. We've had a lot of estate sales in the last 5-10 years, lots of families have moved in, flippers are renovating properties all over the place.
I was at a wedding recently and my friend told me his Parents were looking to move to CWE/Debalivere area. They currently live somewhere near 270.

I normally dont mention antecdotes, but I was really suprised to hear this. I've hung out with my friends dad several times, and he certainly never had the greatest perception of the city. Its good to hear that maybe some of our amentities in certain areas are overcoming some perceived negatives.
Here's a link to neighborhood census estimates for population and a few other characteristics produced by Planning Dept. from 2010-2014 ACS data.

http://stlcity.maps.arcgis.com/apps/Map ... 46fa7d7b96
^^It's not a bad estimate. Some things are iffy (like the predicted 1,000 resident addition to STL Hills neighborhood) but for the most part it could be a good bet.
^ some things look a little funky and I'm not sure how they precisely adjust census tract data to neighborhood borders which might skew some things a bit but I agree it seems to give a rough, plausible picture of what's going on in the City... keep in mind as well though that the Census lowered population totals since 2014; iirc it was about 317,000 or so in 2014 and now the estimate is 311,000. .
On the issue of school population possibly leading to a significant County population rebound, I'm skeptical. Article on Ferg-Flo schools says they may have to close a couple buildings....

Enrollment decline has Ferguson-Florissant weighing redistricting options
http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/educ ... 05834.html

The district’s peak enrollment was about 26,000 in 1968. Now, there are about 10,500 students, as of an Oct. 25 board presentation....“Right now, young families are not moving in droves to St. Louis County. They’re moving out to Wentzville,” Chabot said.

Obviously the better school districts in the County are going to do better and will attract families, but my father-in-law out in St. Chuckies County pointed out that even districts like Saint Charles and Francis Howell have passed their prime. Turns out he;s right...

What's the fastest-growing school district in Missouri?
http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/educ ... 20a9d.html

Demographically, things just aren't on the upswing on school enrollment except for the Wentzville and Fort Zumwalt's of the world and that won't be lasting forever either. I think only an influx of immigrants and a much stronger local economy are the only real answers for stronger overall population growth in the region, including the County.
Block Group 5-year ACS estimates are out Thursday. I might throw together a map of St. Louis City, St. Louis County and maybe St. Claire County to see what's up.
From the 2010 Census I get about 45,000 people living in the central corridor b/w the river and Kingshighway, an area just under 8 sq. mi. (so just a bit above the citywide density average of 5,200ppl/sq.mi.) My guess is we'll see close to 55,000 and growing for 2020, which would be pretty decent gain for this core area I think. Is this too ambitious or too low a prediction?

The neighborhoods (and 2010 population)
Downtown 3,700
Downtown West 3,900
Midtown 5,600
Grand Center 3,500 (Grand Center is inflated as majority of population is north of Delmar I think.)
Central West End 14,000
Forest Park SE 2,900
McRee Town 1,000
Tiffany 1,000
The Gate District 3,400
Lafayette Square 2,000
Peabody D-W 2,300
Lasalle Park 1,300
^That seems a bit ambitious, as it would mean growth in that area this decade is 2x/200% more than it was last decade, which had some pretty impressive numbers in DT (2,915), DTW (1,736), Midtown (1,244), and PDW (918).

I don't think there's been twice as much growth east of Kingshighway in the central corridor this decade. Hopefully I'm wrong and that's the case though.
^ maybe a bit ambitious... my thinking was well see some bigger gains in Downtown/Downtown West and CWE than last decade and in addition see somewhat of a role reversal with FPSE & McRee Town, where the loss last decade was around a combined 1,500. But then again upon reflection I'm thinking maybe we won't see much gain in PDW this time around. With Midtown, where there was a big gain last decade, I'm not sure I have a solid understanding of how big a role SLU students play but maybe we won't see another 1,200 again.

So if we get pretty much a wash with not much of a net gain or loss in the remainder of the n'hoods, I'm thinking something around +7,500 with the gains largely coming from the following...

Downtown/Downtown West + 5,000
CWE + 1,500
FPSE/McRee Town + 1,000
Do we think BPV will be included in 2020 census?

That could be a nice finale to a decade of growth downtown.

As for FPSE I think it'll be closer to 1500+
Unsure about Midtown also. I'm especially curious about Grand center/ covenant.

I think 7500+ is reasonable for Central Corridor. Dont forget Debalivere and all the momentum west of CWE.
^ I agree on FPSE.
I think it may already be near 1,000 gain without Chroma, lofts, 4321 Manchester, and the project across from urban chestnut.


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^ crazy to think even the original Aventurd was this decade... maybe 1,000 is too low. But then again there's probably still a considerable amount of old residents leaving that's probably not as visible so I didn't want to get too optimistic.

^^ dylank, great question about BPV and other bigger projects getting underway and not set to open till end of 2019/early 2020... I don't know when the Census is taken so but think it might be Summer 2020 so there might be some move-ins by then.

Also, I was looking at the core Central Corridor east of Kingshighway (with the n'hoods listed above)... definitely agree we should be above 7,500 for the CC as a whole; 10,000 would be solid.
Maryland Heights is one of the places that is a bit of surprise with estimated population loss this decade. That new mixed-style (looks like some apartments, some townhomes, some detached single family, etc.) development on the NW corner of the Page/I-270 interchange looks like it will have quite a few units so that should help but damn it is an ugly mess.
2017 population estimates should be released later this month for counties, (including the independent places like Saint Louis City, Baltimore, Philly & San Fran).

I'm going with the theory that Saint Louis City soon will be outperforming the County in population on an annual basis.... maybe not quite this year but by 2020.

And fwiw, I think it's really interesting to see how the City has done b/w 2010-2016 in terms of adults.... the city gained a greater percentage of adults 25+ than the County did but a smaller overall count. Same situation with the most coveted 25-34 yr. old group. But when you add in the 35-44 yr. old category, the City actually outgained the County in both percentage and raw count. (County lost in that older age group while City made a small gain.) I guess my partial theory on this is that people who have been moving into the City increasingly are staying here longer and not moving out to the County as much, while some of this age group that was in the County is moving out to St. Charles.

Another thing that kind of stands out is that the percentage of 25-34 year olds with a B.A. or higher has really climbed... from 41,2% in 2010 to 47.3% in 2016... and is now higher than both the County and Saint Charles County. Anyway, the City despite slipping in population overall (due to loss of under 25 yr. old pop.) is a really changing place and is performing rather decently given the larger regional slow growth. If it can up immigration a bit and improve quality of life for northside I can see some actual population gains before too long.
Nice to be a small part of a positive trend.