Crime Thread

A catch-all forum for urban discussion. If it doesn't fit elsewhere, post here.
First unread post7137 posts
It'd be interesting to see what would happen if we banned guns. Would there just be hundreds of stabbings, fist fights?
^^^

Yeah, probably.
whitherSTL wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:13 pm
It'd be interesting to see what would happen if we banned guns. Would there just be hundreds of stabbings, fist fights?
Definitely a distinct possibility. As I said getting rid of guns certainly will not end violent crime. It is magnitudes more difficult to kill someone via knife or punch, however. You also cannot drive by stab or punch someone. Nor can you stab or punch someone from the other end of the block. Etc etc etc etc etc.
whitherSTL wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:13 pm
It'd be interesting to see what would happen if we banned guns. Would there just be hundreds of stabbings, fist fights?
What makes you think that banning guns would make guns go away? Criminals are already banned from owning guns.
bprop wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:22 pm
whitherSTL wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:13 pm
It'd be interesting to see what would happen if we banned guns. Would there just be hundreds of stabbings, fist fights?
What makes you think that banning guns would make guns go away? Criminals are already banned from owning guns.
This is a false argument. It has literally been done in the real world already. Yes, in the short term they would have guns. Like literally anything else in the world it does not immediately solve the problem. It takes time and hard work and sustained proactive actions.

Just like everything else in life.
Real world application:

A criminal retains his gun and commits a robbery with it. Criminal is caught and goes to prison. When he gets out getting a new gun costs criminal $50,000. What are the odds criminal is getting his hands on another gun.

Repeat, repeat, repeat and one day...criminals don’t have guns.

Crazy stuff huh!
There were 214 knife murders in London during a recent 12-month period. Also 391 knife attempted murders. A six-year high. Migrant-related.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/r ... 62941.html

Surge in German knife crimes as well, mostly migrants.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06- ... ife-crimes

I think I'd rather get shot than stabbed to death. I mean, if I had to pick one.
^Interesting info.

It has zero relevancy to my post.
I agree 100% with the points about guns, and yet, I almost don't even want to go there in this thread. Not because it's wrong or even off-topic. Not even because it's unrealistic (though it kind of is for some reason). Really just because it doesn't address much that we can do at the local level.

Somehow the city of St. Louis has to figure out a way to solve this crime. And I don't know what to do.

I mean, in some ways we do. We know how we need to give people opportunities to build a life where they don't turn to crime. All true. But what do we do in the short-term.

I dunno. More questions than answers, I'm just growing beyond frustrated. Not only am I going to have to move neighborhoods, I'm afraid I'm going to have to do it sooner than I ever planned. And I hate it. I hate bailing on a place because that makes it worse. But it's not exactly my call anymore.

Sorry if I'm being dramatic about it. It's just a bit of a helpless feeling.
jstriebel wrote: I dunno. More questions than answers, I'm just growing beyond frustrated. Not only am I going to have to move neighborhoods, I'm afraid I'm going to have to do it sooner than I ever planned. And I hate it. I hate bailing on a place because that makes it worse. But it's not exactly my call anymore.

Sorry if I'm being dramatic about it. It's just a bit of a helpless feeling.
Forgive me, but why do you have to up and move just because of a few gunshots down the street? And what neighborhood in the city are you moving to where there won't be gunshots down the street?
newstl2020 wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:26 pm

This is a false argument. It has literally been done in the real world already. Yes, in the short term they would have guns. Like literally anything else in the world it does not immediately solve the problem. It takes time and hard work and sustained proactive actions.

Just like everything else in life.
Yea, but that's not what was implied by the question. The question was, effectively: "What happens if we ban guns? Will there be fistfights?" As though A->B.

The answer, ignoring the obvious impossibility of putting the horse back into the barn, is "not much."

If you would rather ask, "What happens if we ban guns, and over the next X decades, [again ignoring the impossibility of putting the horse back into the barn], enforce the ban, and put in a lot of hard work and proactive actions, will there eventually be fistfights instead?" .... then fine.
That’s fair.
leeharveyawesome wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:10 pm
Forgive me, but why do you have to up and move just because of a few gunshots down the street? And what neighborhood in the city are you moving to where there won't be gunshots down the street?

First off, I have to move anyways because we need more space. And my wife isn't going to let us stay in a neighborhood where there's gunshots around the corner at a children's bus stop at 7am in the morning.

There probably isn't a neighborhood in the city where you won't occasionally hear gunshots, sure. But certainly there are ones with less than others, and certainly they're usually going to be constrained to the night hours.

It's a real problem that this stuff is happening in the light of day now in areas where people are likely to be out and about.

I love the hell out of this city, and I don't plan to ever leave it. But I'm not going to apologize for being concerned about the increasingly frequently and increasingly close amount of gunfire to my home.
Nice and relevant article by CityLab about how Camden reset their police department and cut murders by 3/4ths. Some cool discussion points about the value of community policing in destabilized neighborhoods. STL could take a few pointers.

https://www.citylab.com/equity/2018/01/ ... =SFTwitter
GoHarvOrGoHome wrote: Nice and relevant article by CityLab about how Camden reset their police department and cut murders by 3/4ths. Some cool discussion points about the value of community policing in destabilized neighborhoods. STL could take a few pointers.

https://www.citylab.com/equity/2018/01/ ... =SFTwitter
There were actually more shootings in Camden last year but less people happened to die from their injuries, for whatever reason. Just a fluke. But if the cops want to pat themselves on the back by all means, feel free.

http://www.courierpostonline.com/story/ ... 997968001/
Comparing any city to NYC is somewhat difficult, but here are some rough comparisons between us and NYC which we should consider given how dramatically NYC's crime has fallen in recent years. Murders are down from a peak of over 2,000 in the early 1990's to around 290 in 2017. To put that in perspective, here are some rough estimate figures:

NYC:
Population 8.5 million
Murders: 290
Police Officers: 37,000

STL:
Population: 315 k
Murders: 200
Police Officers: 1,300

Quick math shows that STL has about 1 officer for every 242 residents while NYC has around 1 officer for every 230 residents. This implies that maybe we could stand to add a handful of officers here, but that alone is highly unlikely to result in the dramatic reduction in murders seen in NYC. Clearly our policing strategy needs to change.
Year-end neighborhood crime report out...

http://www.slmpd.org/crimestats/CRM0013-BY_201712.pdf

205 homicides in 2017, up 9% from the 188 in 2016 (and 2015). As always results vary by neighborhood but in general homicides up in North City, about the same in Central Corridor, and down in South City.
I see there's been an interesting convo on here but this gave me a bit of a chuckle....
whitherSTL wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:59 am
In a decade the city will have ~225K residents, will file for BK, and everything will restart...
STLrainbow wrote:
Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:14 pm
Year-end neighborhood crime report out...

http://www.slmpd.org/crimestats/CRM0013-BY_201712.pdf

205 homicides in 2017, up 9% from the 188 in 2016 (and 2015). As always results vary by neighborhood but in general homicides up in North City, about the same in Central Corridor, and down in South City.
The overall crime numbers are pretty disappointing. Even though murders have been rising for the past few years, it seems like the total crime numbers have been dropping. However, that wasn't the case in 2017 which saw a 1.9% increase in total crime.

Aggravated assault with a gun was up 22.7% with 2,616 cases. That's a pretty staggering number. That's about 1 for every 120 people and over 7 per day.

In 2013, there were 1,626 aggravated assaults with a gun. We have had over a 60% increase in 4 years.
^ yeah, as mentioned results vary greatly neighborhood to neighborhood -- see Downtown (no change) v. Downtown West (up a lot) , e.g. -- but the overall jump in shootings (and homicides) is extremely frustrating.
STLrainbow wrote:
Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:53 pm
I see there's been an interesting convo on here but this gave me a bit of a chuckle....
whitherSTL wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:59 am
In a decade the city will have ~225K residents, will file for BK, and everything will restart...
Ha yeah I can't speak to the BK issue because I haven't taken a dive into the city financials. However, on the baseline that comment completely ignores the reality of nationwide housing trends that are starting to take hold in StL, global trends concerning urban migration, and the current boom in multi-family building taking place in the city right now. Also the slowing of net migratory outflows from the city shown by the most recent census data.

As a post above in this thread states, homicides are flat or down in the central corridor and south city which since 2010 have seen consistent rehab and new construction activity, pointing towards the potential of a no-loss census for the city overall in 2020.

But my view is shaded from growing up in the city in the 1990s and seeing the dramatic difference of investment in the city now compared to then. IMHO 2020 is the bottom for StL city population.
Grover wrote:
Sat Jan 13, 2018 2:32 pm
STLrainbow wrote:
Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:14 pm
Year-end neighborhood crime report out...

http://www.slmpd.org/crimestats/CRM0013-BY_201712.pdf

205 homicides in 2017, up 9% from the 188 in 2016 (and 2015). As always results vary by neighborhood but in general homicides up in North City, about the same in Central Corridor, and down in South City.
The overall crime numbers are pretty disappointing. Even though murders have been rising for the past few years, it seems like the total crime numbers have been dropping. However, that wasn't the case in 2017 which saw a 1.9% increase in total crime.

Aggravated assault with a gun was up 22.7% with 2,616 cases. That's a pretty staggering number. That's about 1 for every 120 people and over 7 per day.

In 2013, there were 1,626 aggravated assaults with a gun. We have had over a 60% increase in 4 years.
Those are horrible stats. Unfortunately in this country public health epidemics like guns are ignored for special interests. Over 25% of the people killed via gun violence in St. Louis in the entire year of 2017 were killed in 10 minutes in Las Vegas. There are many people in this country that do not value human life and as long as we continue to make the easiest way of eliminating human life as available as possible to as many as possible this is not going to change. Urban areas across the nation are held hostage by a voting minority which is literal insanity.

But, as members have said, stating the political reality does not get us any closer to a solution for our neighborhoods and homes. We need forward thinking and aggressive leadership that learns from what has worked in New York, etc as posted in this thread and applies the necessary pieces to our regional situation.
^ those are two good posts.

I agree we may see some population loss this decade --, my bet is under 5% (which would keep us above 300,000 people -- and that'll be the population bottom. Crime definitely is one of many factors affecting our ability to maximize population, but its pretty silly to suggest we'll crater population over the next decade when all available evidence suggests we're seeing increasing investments in more and more neighborhoods.
SouthCityJR wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:48 pm
Comparing any city to NYC is somewhat difficult, but here are some rough comparisons between us and NYC which we should consider given how dramatically NYC's crime has fallen in recent years. Murders are down from a peak of over 2,000 in the early 1990's to around 290 in 2017. To put that in perspective, here are some rough estimate figures:

NYC:
Population 8.5 million
Murders: 290
Police Officers: 37,000

STL:
Population: 315 k
Murders: 200
Police Officers: 1,300

Quick math shows that STL has about 1 officer for every 242 residents while NYC has around 1 officer for every 230 residents. This implies that maybe we could stand to add a handful of officers here, but that alone is highly unlikely to result in the dramatic reduction in murders seen in NYC. Clearly our policing strategy needs to change.
I've asked this directly to aldermen/alderwomen, and will ask again here: St. Louis has one of the highest rates of police officers to residents in the country (if not the highest), so where are all these police officers??

When I lived in NYC, I constantly saw beat patrols, car patrols, etc. I lived in different neighborhoods and boroughs (Manhattan and Brooklyn), wealthier and poorer areas, and you see police everywhere. Here in St. Louis I barely see any police ever. There are no cops walking the streets anywhere, you very rarely see police vehicles just on patrol. Even Cara Spencer on a recent nextSTL post highlighted the importance of beat cops and community policing in driving down crime rates around the Cherokee area. This is a relatively well-tested method but does not seem to be a priority.

Again, where is everyone? Are they just sitting at the police station all day?
kipfilet wrote: When I lived in NYC, I constantly saw beat patrols, car patrols, etc. I lived in different neighborhoods and boroughs (Manhattan and Brooklyn), wealthier and poorer areas, and you see police everywhere. Here in St. Louis I barely see any police ever.
While the per capita number of police officers in NYC and STL may be comparable, the density is not. In NYC, they have 121.7 officers per square mile, while STL is 19.6.

That stills seems like a fairly high density of police in STL. I guess you would have to divide that by 3 shifts a day, but that would still leave an average of over 6 cops per sq mile. Assume each one is partnered up, that would still have 3 cop cars/pairings per sq mile, which seems like a sufficient number.