Crime Thread

A catch-all forum for urban discussion. If it doesn't fit elsewhere, post here.
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Chalupas54 wrote:
Mon Nov 27, 2017 4:02 pm
Ebsy wrote:
Mon Nov 27, 2017 1:23 pm
God this forum is full of crybabies. The defeatism is as pointless as it is annoying.
So...we should just not care that 190 people have been killed? I can't be horrified that the mounting death toll in our city?
I think everyone cares quite a bit that our fellow City residents are being murdered, but caring doesn't really amount to much in the end. Certainly doesn't help out the people being shot.
Ebsy wrote:
Mon Nov 27, 2017 3:34 pm
There are a lot of things that seem beyond our power to change, but that doesn't mean we need to basically concede that the City of St. Louis is dead and that we should all abandon it for greener pastures. .... I'm not terribly interested in that line of thought, so forgive me for being blunt.
i'm not a fan of incessant defeatism either, but i don't think Chalupas' comment expressed that at all. where did he suggest that we abandon anything? (one pessimistic note, though: there's no "before". St. Louis has been going through tough times--consistently--for decades. i understand how it sometimes seems insurmountable. i don't think it is insurmountable, but it often feels that way.)
Ebsy wrote:
Mon Nov 27, 2017 4:14 pm
Chalupas54 wrote:
Mon Nov 27, 2017 4:02 pm
Ebsy wrote:
Mon Nov 27, 2017 1:23 pm
God this forum is full of crybabies. The defeatism is as pointless as it is annoying.
So...we should just not care that 190 people have been killed? I can't be horrified that the mounting death toll in our city?
I think everyone cares quite a bit that our fellow City residents are being murdered, but caring doesn't really amount to much in the end. Certainly doesn't help out the people being shot.
Telling people to stop complaining about it is kind of the ultimate form of defeatism.
Ebsy wrote:
Mon Nov 27, 2017 1:23 pm
God this forum is full of crybabies. The defeatism is as pointless as it is annoying.
So you don't offer any solution to the problem, at the same time you accuse others of defeatism? I certainly don't have any solution to the problem, but at least I don't judge other people for complaining about the fact that they live in one of the most violent cities of the Northern hemisphere.
Almost none of the posters on this forum live in one of the most dangerous cities in the world. If you look at the homicide maps, there are essentially 2 Cities of St. Louis: the one where people are shot at an alarming rate, and the one where people are very seldom murdered. Almost all of us on here, myself included, live in the latter, and the people that live in the former are, for the most part, not posting on urbanstl.

In terms of solutions, I'm not really sure there are any. We've essentially had 2 race riots in St. Louis over the last 5 years and the increase in people shooting each other is a direct consequence of that. There is no way to go back in time and prevent them from happening, and so people are going to continue dying. It's not pleasant or pretty, but things can have unintended consequences and I think if you subtitled our city it would be St. Louis: Unintended Consequences. People on both sides are totally unwilling to consider anything that the Ferguson Commission had to say, to make any changes whatsoever, so essentially we are left with waiting for the violence to burn itself out. We can all be certain that St. Louis will still be here after everyone is done shooting each other.
A few thoughts as someone who has admittedly been somewhat consumed by the increase in crime in our scrappy city. First, it’s a terrible problem that likely has snowball effects for our reputation across the country. While our fragmented region argues within itself about what to do, other cities who have figured it out more are gaining on us. At what point will people in West County and St. Charles realize that we rise and fall together, as a region? A WaPo article from September or October said that save for 3-4 cities, homicide rates are declining. Why do cities like STL and Baltimore have in common? Why is our violent crime rate increasing in a time when others are going down? Where is the political leadership?

While people aren’t murdered in my neighborhood every day like they appear to be up north, we get to deal with teenage criminals with guns trying to steal my neighbors’ cars, among other issues. Certainly not the same, but nonetheless terrifying and causes me and especially my wife to question if the city, where we’ve lived since 2008, remains the place for us and our young daughter.

I’m not ready to let someone drive me from my home yet, though. I wrote a strongly worded letter to Krewson this morning about this same topic. If her administration has ideas and/or a plan, I haven’t heard anything. She campaigned as tough on crime, but I haven’t seen anything yet, other than asking the poorer among us to pay higher sales taxes. What about a significant increase in social workers in schools? Providing support and guidance for struggling parents? How do we get these individuals more invested in society so that they and their families have more to lose by engaging in criminal behavior?
Good article from Baltimore on the rise in carjackings. This article is very applicable to what we are seeing in STL.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryla ... story.html
Ebsy, I completely agree with your second paragraph, but not with the first one.
Ebsy wrote:
Mon Nov 27, 2017 9:52 pm
Almost none of the posters on this forum live in one of the most dangerous cities in the world. If you look at the homicide maps, there are essentially 2 Cities of St. Louis: the one where people are shot at an alarming rate, and the one where people are very seldom murdered. Almost all of us on here, myself included, live in the latter, and the people that live in the former are, for the most part, not posting on urbanstl.
That's why I said the Northern Hemisphere, not the World. St. Louis is one of the most dangerous cities (if not the most, comparing large cities) when you consider North America + Europe + East Asia. If we have to start including non-OECD countries to look good in the rankings, then it becomes pretty sad that we are not amongst the most violent only when countries like Somalia and Honduras are considered.

And as the other poster has said, violent crime is not just murders. Am I afraid of being murdered? No, but then again that's a pretty low bar. Am I afraid of being carjacked, robbed at gunpoint, or beaten by a band of roving teens? Yes., because these things happen regularly in mine or adjacent neighborhoods. As I said before, I think that my love of the city's architecture and urbanity is enough to keep me here for now, but I don't think I would like to raise my children in an environment like this.

Reminds me of this incident in Denver....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAl2UBSgCZU
San Luis Native wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 1:39 pm
Second officer involved shooting in less than a week. I believe the incident last Thursday was the 9th officer involved fatal shooting on the year.

If you're at all concerned about these incidents being on the "up-and-up", rest assured that this fine government official - protecting and serving the people of St. Louis - is on the five person unit making sure the people of the city are fully protected and cared for.
What is the answer? Getting fired at from a carjacker who has an AK-47 style gun isn't going to have any good results.
San Luis Native wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 1:39 pm
Second officer involved shooting in less than a week. I believe the incident last Thursday was the 9th officer involved fatal shooting on the year.

If you're at all concerned about these incidents being on the "up-and-up", rest assured that this fine government official - protecting and serving the people of St. Louis - is on the five person unit making sure the people of the city are fully protected and cared for.

Are you serious? The officers had an AK-47 pointed at them. When on Earth are people going to start focusing some energy on the fact that STL has a contingent of lawless, gun-toting, drug-trading, no-value-for-life miscreants that kill wantonly...

But go ahead, focus energies elsewhere....ridiculous
I believe you're conflating two separate situations here, my friends. I'm not defending the criminals or excusing their behavior or saying the police did anything wrong in this case. I'm simply saying there are A LOT of officer involved shootings going on and the oversight investigating them might be questionable. This should be a concern for all.

IMHO, there are two separate issues in the city of St. Louis with respect to crime, well more than two, but I'll just focus on two here for the sake of defending my position here:

Issue 1) A sh*tload of violent crime that I believe we all need to see decline ASAP
Issue 2) Possible questionable police oversight exhibit A

I am skeptical to believe that issue #1 can be effectively resolved without first resolving issue #2.

Additionally, I'm wanting to see public servants held to the civil standards they've committed to. Please feel free to let me know where that is in the wrong. I'll wait while you try and figure that one out. K? Thx.
Of the city's 191 homicides through November (up 12% from last year)...

North City; 154 (up 27%)
Central: 14 (unchanged)
South: 23 (down 36%)
STLrainbow wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:02 pm
Of the city's 191 homicides through November (up 12% from last year)...

North City; 154 (up 27%)
Central: 14 (unchanged)
South: 23 (down 26%)
Exhibit A for why population loss from North City is going to be horrific in the next census. The City of St. Louis will likely end up being plurality white by 2020 if it is not already.
South of I-55/44 had a population of 157,000, which was down 9% from 2000. If there's 138,000 there now, that's a murder rate of 16.7 per 100,000.

Central corridor had 61,000 in 2010, up 9% from 2000. If there's 65,000 there now, murder rate in central corridor is 21.5 per 100,000.

Right about 100,000 people lived north of Delmar in 2010, which was down 16% from 2000. If there's about 88,000 there now, that's a murder rate in north St. Louis of 175 per 100,000.

[For reference, East St Louis has a murder rate of about 85 per 100,000 over the last five years. It fluctuates between 65 and 100 or so.]

[2nd for reference: the US KIA rate in Iraq was about 500 per 100,000 from 2004 to 2007, about 165 per 100,000 in 2008, and about 80 in 2009.]
stlhistory wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 5:10 pm
South of I-55/44 had a population of 157,000, which was down 9% from 2000. If there's 138,000 there now, that's a murder rate of 16.7 per 100,000.

Central corridor had 61,000 in 2010, up 9% from 2000. If there's 65,000 there now, murder rate in central corridor is 21.5 per 100,000.

Right about 100,000 people lived north of Delmar in 2010, which was down 16% from 2000. If there's about 88,000 there now, that's a murder rate in north St. Louis of 175 per 100,000.

[For reference, East St Louis has a murder rate of about 85 per 100,000 over the last five years. It fluctuates between 65 and 100 or so.]

[2nd for reference: the US KIA rate in Iraq was about 500 per 100,000 from 2004 to 2007, about 165 per 100,000 in 2008, and about 80 in 2009.]
Wow. Thanks for that perspective. Makes the "war zone" comments a bit less laughable.

Something really must be done. I, for one, would love to see the city go hard after PSS quickly. Its clear the current policing techniques aren't succeeding at stopping violent crime.
STLrainbow wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:02 pm
Of the city's 191 homicides through November (up 12% from last year)...

North City; 154 (up 27%)
Central: 14 (unchanged)
South: 23 (down 36%)
Here's another. NYC had 11/26 homicides through 11/26, Here's how North City homicides compared to Borough break-downs:

Brooklyn: 101
Bronx: 64
Queens: 43
Manhattan: 40
Staten Island: 9

As stlhistory mentioned North City likely has under 100,000 people now. Brooklyn more than 2.5M.
STLrainbow wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:27 am
STLrainbow wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:02 pm
Of the city's 191 homicides through November (up 12% from last year)...

North City; 154 (up 27%)
Central: 14 (unchanged)
South: 23 (down 36%)
Here's another. NYC had 11/26 homicides through 11/26, Here's how North City homicides compared to Borough break-downs:

Brooklyn: 101
Bronx: 64
Queens: 43
Manhattan: 40
Staten Island: 9

As stlhistory mentioned North City likely has under 100,000 people now. Brooklyn more than 2.5M.
Homicides in those boroughs are also extremely concentrated in a couple neighborhoods (Brownsville, East NY for Brooklyn, Ozone Park for Queens, South Bronx for the Bronx). Since NYC boroughs are larger than most cities in the US, I wonder how the borough neighborhood comparison scales against the STL South/Centre/North breakdown.
The city is looking for question submissions for a townhall-style event for the six final candidates for police chief. You can submit your questions here: http://bit.ly/CAC_Townhall.

I submitted four myself. The townhall takes place on Thursday, the 14th from 6-8PM at SLU Law School.
The only way I see this really changing is through steady population growth. North City is a wasteland because there are no longer eyes on the street. Entire blocks with zero residents watching from their living room windows. It's a vicious cycle and unfortunately we have demolished a majority of the housing stock leaving little room for the few people who DO want to live there.

We need population growth and metro lines to connect the area to the city. Without population growth, the N/S metrolink will likely not have a huge affect on the area, but with growth the area around the route can become a boomtown of sorts filled with new residents looking for a bargain on rent. The growth will come, we need N/S to be ready for it.
I'm not so sure that population growth drives down crime or that population loss accelerates crime. East St Louis has a lower crime rate than north St. Louis at this point, so that's one piece of evidence to suggest that eventually even the criminals will move out once things get too bad.

Lots of theories about crime exist, but generally they center on poor educational outcomes and lack of economic opportunity. These two factors are inherently linked, but solving the crime crisis in north St. Louis is a problem of solving the education and economic crisis in north St. Louis. If we merely continue to try to solve the symptom (200 homicides), that might ameliorate some of the issue, but until the region tackles the cause, we will continue to see this outcome.
Lots of theories about crime exist, but generally they center on poor educational outcomes and lack of economic opportunity. These two factors are inherently linked, but solving the crime crisis in north St. Louis is a problem of solving the education and economic crisis in north St. Louis.
Yep. Totally agree. I would suspect most of these crimes are drug related. Its the easiest way for a lot of people in that area to make money.
A sizeable share of the crime I see in St Louis seems to be very obviously drug related. But there's also a lot of random crime that does not seem to be directly related to drugs (such as random beatings in the street, etc.), and more often than not the descriptions of the suspects and how they act seem to suggest some sort of very strong learning disability/mental illness. I wonder if this is related: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front ... ses-crime/
stlhistory wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 5:10 pm
South of I-55/44 had a population of 157,000, which was down 9% from 2000. If there's 138,000 there now, that's a murder rate of 16.7 per 100,000.

Central corridor had 61,000 in 2010, up 9% from 2000. If there's 65,000 there now, murder rate in central corridor is 21.5 per 100,000.

Right about 100,000 people lived north of Delmar in 2010, which was down 16% from 2000. If there's about 88,000 there now, that's a murder rate in north St. Louis of 175 per 100,000.

[For reference, East St Louis has a murder rate of about 85 per 100,000 over the last five years. It fluctuates between 65 and 100 or so.]

[2nd for reference: the US KIA rate in Iraq was about 500 per 100,000 from 2004 to 2007, about 165 per 100,000 in 2008, and about 80 in 2009.]
This is unreal. Thanks for sharing. It's really shocking. Any idea on how the rate in Central Corridor or South City compares to other cities in St. Louis's peer group? (I do realize that's a bit of cherry picking the data but am curious nontheless)