2020 Census

A catch-all forum for urban discussion. If it doesn't fit elsewhere, post here.
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whitherSTL wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 1:17 pm
Webster doing just fine....like $290/sq ft fine...
Increase in home prices/hot housing market in a suburb doesn't necessarily mean population growth. Due to declining household sizes, if a city isn't adding a good amount of housing units, it probably won't be growing, unless it is getting younger and attracting more young families. A population decrease doesn't necessarily mean an area is unhealthy or undesirable (although growth is obviously better).

Average household size continues to decline in the US. In 2016, it was estimated at 2.53, down from 3.3 in 1966 and 2.59 in 2000. Average household size in STL in 2000 (I'm not finding newer data) was 2.52, lower than the national average for metro areas of 2.61. In Wesbster Groves average household size was even lower at 2.39.

Looking at trends in median age since 2000, I think it is likely that household size in metro STL is dropping faster than the national average. Source: http://www.demographia.com/db-metroage.pdf

In 2013, average age in metro STL was 38.6 years, ranking 40th out of 52 largest metros. That was an increase of 2.5 years since 2000, greater than the national average increase of 2.3. So the St. Louis metro has an old population that is getting older, which means less kids and smaller household size.
^ I think that is a demographic problem that is particularly facing the Pittsburgh metro... more deaths than births iirc.

Back to STL, yeah, Webster and the like are kind of like the St. Louis Hills and Lindenwood Park neighborhoods... quite stable but you're going to have difficulty growing population there with constraints facing new housing supply. Meanwhile other parts of the County, particularly in NoCo, are facing some of the same problems that have plagued some of the city's deteriorating nabes. But again unlike the City, it just seems hard to see where growth will/can come in the County outside of the edges and Clayton without exploding past development patterns.
moorlander wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 1:46 pm
As boomers downsize or die off families will move in and populations will rise again.
This is the wild card for some county burbs -

anecdotal but -

A friend in Sunset hills has been on his street since 2003 - In that time the K-12 school buses went from picking 3 kids up in 03 to 14 kids today as many of the houses in his 40 year old subdivision turned over in the intervening years

Friends in Kirkwood off of Geyer - most of the street next to them has been torn down and rebuilt - 1,000 SF post war frames replaced with +2,000 SF 2 story craftsmen - more kids on that block now then ever since they have lived there
STLrainbow wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 12:56 pm
Will STL County lose population again this decade? Census estimate is yes so far but I'll say small increase for 2020 Census

Will any of the following inner-ring suburbs that lost population last decade and which the census estimates a loss since 2010 actually gain population this decade?

Shrewsbury
Maplewood
Richmond Hts
University City

I say no. What say you?
Richmond Heights has added some new housing since 2010 - they might see a bump

U-City has a added a little bit, but probably not enough to offset losses

Maplewood probably has not added any (someone please propose redevelopment of the Shop N Save, or the little strip mall to the east)

Shrewsbury probably has not added any significant new housing
Clayton should see a nice bump with all of the new construction there. Places like Chesterfield, Wildwood, and Eureka can only really go up. That being said, it will most likely be flat pop growth in the county.
whitherSTL wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 1:17 pm
Webster doing just fine....like $290/sq ft fine...
Its lost almost 25% of its population since 1970s basically anyone born/raised there since the 1980s never came back after college.
beer city wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:03 pm
Richmond Heights has added some new housing since 2010 - they might see a bump

U-City has a added a little bit, but probably not enough to offset losses

Maplewood probably has not added any (someone please propose redevelopment of the Shop N Save, or the little strip mall to the east)

Shrewsbury probably has not added any significant new housing
Sometimes its hard for me to remember if a certain development (or clearance) happened pre or post 2010, but do you recall when that Richmond Heights residential district was cleared out for the retail horror show where Menard's is?
Heres something off topic is the St.Louis region particularly the City doing anything to court hurricane victims in Puerto Rico to resettle here?
St.Louis will be a great location practically in the middle of the country lots of affordable housing to make roots here.
STLrainbow wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:01 am
beer city wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:03 pm
Richmond Heights has added some new housing since 2010 - they might see a bump

U-City has a added a little bit, but probably not enough to offset losses

Maplewood probably has not added any (someone please propose redevelopment of the Shop N Save, or the little strip mall to the east)

Shrewsbury probably has not added any significant new housing
Sometimes its hard for me to remember if a certain development (or clearance) happened pre or post 2010, but do you recall when that Richmond Heights residential district was cleared out for the retail horror show where Menard's is?
The demos started sometime after 2010, but I think that the buy outs were before that - there were houses that were vacant for years before being demoed
moorlander wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 1:46 pm
As boomers downsize or die off families will move in and populations will rise again.
That's exactly what's happening in my neighborhood. We've had a lot of estate sales in the last 5-10 years, lots of families have moved in, flippers are renovating properties all over the place.
I was at a wedding recently and my friend told me his Parents were looking to move to CWE/Debalivere area. They currently live somewhere near 270.

I normally dont mention antecdotes, but I was really suprised to hear this. I've hung out with my friends dad several times, and he certainly never had the greatest perception of the city. Its good to hear that maybe some of our amentities in certain areas are overcoming some perceived negatives.
Here's a link to neighborhood census estimates for population and a few other characteristics produced by Planning Dept. from 2010-2014 ACS data.

http://stlcity.maps.arcgis.com/apps/Map ... 46fa7d7b96
^^It's not a bad estimate. Some things are iffy (like the predicted 1,000 resident addition to STL Hills neighborhood) but for the most part it could be a good bet.
^ some things look a little funky and I'm not sure how they precisely adjust census tract data to neighborhood borders which might skew some things a bit but I agree it seems to give a rough, plausible picture of what's going on in the City... keep in mind as well though that the Census lowered population totals since 2014; iirc it was about 317,000 or so in 2014 and now the estimate is 311,000. .
On the issue of school population possibly leading to a significant County population rebound, I'm skeptical. Article on Ferg-Flo schools says they may have to close a couple buildings....

Enrollment decline has Ferguson-Florissant weighing redistricting options
http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/educ ... 05834.html

The district’s peak enrollment was about 26,000 in 1968. Now, there are about 10,500 students, as of an Oct. 25 board presentation....“Right now, young families are not moving in droves to St. Louis County. They’re moving out to Wentzville,” Chabot said.

Obviously the better school districts in the County are going to do better and will attract families, but my father-in-law out in St. Chuckies County pointed out that even districts like Saint Charles and Francis Howell have passed their prime. Turns out he;s right...

What's the fastest-growing school district in Missouri?
http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/educ ... 20a9d.html

Demographically, things just aren't on the upswing on school enrollment except for the Wentzville and Fort Zumwalt's of the world and that won't be lasting forever either. I think only an influx of immigrants and a much stronger local economy are the only real answers for stronger overall population growth in the region, including the County.
Block Group 5-year ACS estimates are out Thursday. I might throw together a map of St. Louis City, St. Louis County and maybe St. Claire County to see what's up.